制造业增速企稳转暖尚需时日
作者:  2012/2/2 1:11:00  来源:原创  浏览:1726


    本报讯(记者 吴遐)昨日,由中国物流与采购联合会、国家统计局服务业调查中心发布的1月份采购经理人指数(PMI)为50.5%,比上月微升0.2个百分点,这反映出经济增速回落过程趋缓。但与此同时发布的汇丰中国1月份PMI显示为48.8,指数值已连续3个月低于50的荣枯线,表明国内经济收缩状态仍在持续。
    对此业内人士表示,两项数据采集对象有所不同,前一数据采集对象以国有大企业为主,而汇丰的数据更偏重中小企业。从两项数据的差异可以看出,国内大企业的经营状况正在改善,而中小企业经营情况依旧不佳。但考虑到国企对国内经济影响更大,因此中国经济状况应该比外界预计的要好。
    此前国内大宗商品数据商生意社也发布了今年1月大宗商品供需数据(BCI)为0.2。据期货日报记者了解,该指数的跟踪指标为100个基础原材料的价格,1月的BCI指数是自2011年8月发布以来,首次由负转正,显示出国内制造业经济有转稳迹象。
    “目前国内整体经济层面仍较脆弱,随着春节假期因素及翘尾因素影响褪去,预计2月份制造业评价指数将小幅回落。” 信达期货能源化工分析师陈磊表示,今年三季度或将开始扭转市场疲软态势。
    兴业期货分析师叶盛认为,制造业评价指数也能够反映出1月份大宗商品价格情况。1月份国内大宗商品走势都有抬头的迹象,但下游市场需求并没有充分扩张,预计市场整体回暖时间将会在第二季度初。

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