郑糖 短期上涨后存在压力
作者:宋焕  2016/11/29 0:00:00  来源:原创  浏览:693

  近期纽约原糖加速下跌,上周五晚,受现货需求的支撑,原糖出现了微幅反弹,短期将考验19美分/磅。然而,郑糖期货于上周四晚一举突破前期振荡平台,增仓上行,上周五夜盘,主力1701合约已跃升至7000元/吨上方,本周一则直接封在涨停板。笔者认为,郑糖上涨除了整体供给偏紧外,还由于糖市一些利好预期的推动,但涨势能否持续还需要观察原糖的表现。
  供给整体偏紧
  每年10月为食糖新榨季的开始,从10月到春节前,国内食糖供给渠道有以下几种:上榨季结转的老糖库存、糖厂压榨的新糖、进口食糖、抛储糖以及中下游企业食糖库存。通过加总以上供给,可以发现,与去年同期比,今年春节前的食糖供给量同比减少约70万吨。
  近期,市场数据和现货成交也反映了这种供给偏紧的态势。一方面,海关总署公布的最新数据显示,我国10月进口食糖约11万吨,同比减少25万吨,环比下降39万吨。进口量属于偏低水平,与预期中的10万吨比较符合。另一方面,今年食糖现货成交整体好于去年,新老糖价差处于较低水平,现货价格一直居高不下,新糖预售成交也比较好。据了解,上周的新糖订货出现了几例万吨以上的大单。
  利好因素增多
  除了供给整体偏紧外,糖价维持高位还因为糖市里存在着多个利好因素。一是提高关税。9月22日,商务部发布了对进口食糖进行保障措施立案调查的公告,一旦调查情况属实,提高关税将是大概率事件。在这种预期下,加工糖厂进口食糖变得非常谨慎,远期价格的不确定性也显著增加。二是运力受限。我国运输新政出台后,汽运受到明显影响,不仅导致运输成本增加也导致运力受限。其中,新疆和内蒙古的甜菜糖运往销区的天数增长,时间风险大增。广西地区食糖销出的路径之一海运也受到影响,集装箱由一车两箱改成一箱后,压港严重。三是天气因素。天气预报显示,今年很可能遭遇严冬,近日广西地区的低温多雨天气频发,已引起市场对霜冻的警惕。
  原糖指引价格
  有了供给整体偏紧的基础,同时也具备了多个利好因素,郑糖高位振荡后继续拉涨也就顺理成章。不过,后期原糖走势依然对国内糖价有指引作用,随着原糖持续下跌,原糖进口已然出现较好的利润,而且我国近期也出现了买货的举动。虽然这种压力短期较难传导至国内,但长周期来看,郑糖继续上涨的压力较大,而短期来看,原糖一旦止跌,郑糖价格或许能走得更远。
                                     (作者单位:永安期货)

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