沪铜中期下跌趋势未变
作者:户涛  2017/3/31 0:00:00  来源:原创  浏览:1208

3月是国内铜消费旺季,但铜需求旺季不旺,使得铜价并没有如期上涨。从基本面来看,美元走强基础仍在,智利工人即将复工使得供给短缺风险解除,国内需求并没有显著变化,终端消费企业大量补库存的意愿较低,铜价缺乏大幅上涨的动力。结合技术面综合分析,我们认为,近期铜价反弹属于技术性超跌反弹,中期下跌趋势未变。
  美元强势基础仍在
  美联储3月议息会议宣布加息,符合市场预期。我们认为,本年度美联储还要加息2—3次,美国已经进入加息周期。一般而言,美元指数在美国加息周期过程中会不断走高。其内在逻辑是美联储加息意味着美国经济形势较好,吸引资金回流美国,美元的世界需求增加,美元相对于其他货币升值,美元指数走强。与欧元区、日本等经济体发展形势相比,美国经济明显较好,美元走强的基础较为坚实。
  在美联储加息后,美元指数短暂回落,但美联储鸽派马上发言,提振美元指数,这表明美联储鸽派人员不愿意看到美元走弱。美国如果进行大规模基础建设,那么就需要大量的铜、建材等原料。如果美元指数走强,这些原材料价格就会走低,这是美国当权者希望看到的。因此,我们认为,美元中期趋势未变,对于铜价的上涨有一定的抑制作用。
  供给炒作或告一段落
  春节后,沪铜主力合约一度突破50000元/吨大关,主要推手是供给炒作。由于智利Escondida铜矿工人罢工,市场认为铜供给将大幅减少,本年度将出现供不应求的局面。与此同时,印尼铜矿出现罢工,加上机构资金的炒作,铜价大幅上涨。
  但是,机构的炒作并不能持久,高位出货后,铜价逐渐回归基本面。据最新消息,目前智利铜矿工人即将复工,铜矿马上开始生产,供应风险已经缓解。据有关机构估算,年初以来的铜矿罢工已经导致铜产量损失约22万吨。从全球精炼铜产量分析,2015年产量超过2300万吨,本年度更高,铜矿工人罢工影响的铜产量不足总产量的1%,不足以支持铜价大幅上涨。
  国内需求旺季不旺
  3月为国内铜消费旺季,但种种迹象表明,铜需求并没有明显增加。近期国内铜市货源十分充足,下游消费商在铜价下跌时采购较为积极,但价格略微反弹就转入观望,这表明市场看跌氛围有所加重。从进口数据来看,中国2月进口精炼铜233856吨,同比下滑28.83%,跌幅进一步扩大,显示国内进口铜货源较前期有所缩减。由于3月下游企业集中开工,进口数据或好转。
  房地产行业不景气拖累铜需求。房地产行业进入低速增长阶段,对铜的需求将持续低迷,这也是铜需求旺季不旺的原因之一。
  整体库存处于高位
  截至3月28日,LME库存为309225吨,远远高出月初。库存增加意味着下游需求不足,大量的铜挤压到交割仓库,没有进入消费市场。同时,上海期货交易所铜库存完税商品共计161108吨。COMEX铜库存为140936吨,环比小幅增加。从整体来看,铜库存仍处于较高位置,表明终端需求明显不足,不利于铜价上行。
  值得注意的是,加工费降低或是风险点。一般来说,铜矿供不应求,铜精炼费下降;铜矿供过于求,铜精炼费上涨。据悉,中国铜原料联合谈判组(成员包括江西铜业、云南铜业公司和铜陵有色等大型铜冶炼企业)已经将二季度铜加工精炼费(TR/RCS)定为每吨80美元和每磅8美分,低于一季度的每吨90美元和每磅9美分。铜加工费的下降,主要原因是此前全球两大铜矿生产受阻致使全球原材料供应减少。一旦有迹象表明国内铜需求明显增加,这或将刺激铜价走强。
  (作者单位:金石期货)

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