成本支撑强劲 铝价重心抬高
作者:陈敏华  2017/6/30 0:00:00  来源:原创  浏览:725

建议在13700点附近布局多单,第一目标14500—15000点

 上周,山东魏桥集团旗下电解铝6月20日也开始实施减产,计划减产量25万吨,预期10日内减产完成。此外,新疆嘉润铝业二期15万吨电解铝产能已按要求减产,计划6月30日停槽完成。业内人士表示,目前电解铝违规产能主要集中在新疆和山东等地区,此次减产标志着政策加快落实,电解铝产能退出有望超出市场预期。供给侧改革成为今年影响铝价的核心主线,随着政策加速落地,铝价有望获得提振再创新高。
  电解铝供给侧改革炒作预期再度升温
  根据《清理整顿电解铝行业违法违规项目专项行动工作方案》,电解铝供给侧改革将分为四个阶段:企业自查阶段,时间截至2017年5月15日;地方核查阶段,截至6月30日;专项抽查阶段,截至9月15日;督促整改阶段,截至10月15日。
  随着6月30日逐渐临近,地方核查开始提速。山东、新疆地区部分企业开始实施减产,市场对电解铝供给侧改革的预期再度升温。此外,进入6月之后,电解铝供给侧改革再次迎来政策密集期,本轮电解铝供给侧改革逐步上升至多部门联合行动,电解铝产能退出有望超出市场预期。
  根据工信部公布的三批符合《铝行业规范条件》的企业名单统计,国内合规产能为2987万吨。截至6月22日,国内电解铝建成产能4273.6万吨,工信部未备案产能达1286.6万吨(占30%)。不过部分产能尽管未在工信部备案,但已在地方备案,亦属于合规产能。根据ALD统计,按国家级合规审批统计,目前电解铝违规产能约622万吨。考虑到部分违规产能可以实现产能置换,今年至少去掉违规产能200万—300万吨。若严格执行的话,超过500万吨的运行产能或被强制关停,占目前总产能的11%左右。
  

  表为工信部公布三批电解铝合规产能及国内建成产能情况
  成本继续抬升 支撑价格上行
  在电解铝生产成本构成中,电力和氧化铝两种占比接近80%。电力成本中,国内超过70%的产能使用自备电厂供电,电力成本直接受动力煤价格的影响。6月以来,秦皇岛动力煤价开始下跌企稳反弹,较低点已反弹近4.4%至590元/吨。随着越来越严格的环保要求以及夏季需求旺季,动力煤料将维持反弹走势。氧化铝价格由于前期检修停产等因素提振,已从5月初的2300元/吨上涨至2650元/吨,涨幅达到15%。随着供需错配的修正,预计氧化铝后市将维持稳定,对电解铝成本形成支撑。
  另外,受环保限产因素的影响,年初以来阳极碳素和氟化铝的价格始终保持坚挺,尤其是阳极碳素。在冬季取暖限产政策中,商用阳极碳素或将出现短缺,供应紧张将是未来一段时间的主旋律。总体来看,随着动力煤价格的企稳反弹,氧化铝短期维持高位。加上阳极碳素环保限产的预期,电解铝的生产成本将逐步抬升,其价格运行中枢受成本支撑也将进一步抬高。
  整体来看,随着6月山东、新疆地区政策的落实,以及相关政策的密集发布,我们认为,自上而下的供给侧改革将会得到有效落实。超过200万吨违规产能的关停,将会直接改善国内电解铝基本面,电解铝将从过剩变为常态不足,2018年缺口或达230万吨以上。另外,近期电解铝成本的持续抬升会对铝价运行中枢上移形成助力,铝价中长期将维持走强格局。操作上,建议在13700元/吨附近布局多单,目标看至14500—15000元/吨区间。
  (作者单位:信达期货)

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