豆粕 趋势性行情难期
作者:王文娟 倪薇  2017/7/5 0:00:00  来源:原创  浏览:496

  近日,美国农业部公布种植面积及库存报告后,盘整已久的美豆价格应声而起。国内豆粕价格受此影响也迎来大爆发,但趋势性行情仍然存疑。
  USDA报告出乎意料,美豆大举反攻
  由于美玉米播种伊始进度缓慢,并且中西部产区天气复杂多变,玉米播种一度停滞。市场普遍预计美豆种植面积自1983年以来将首次超过美玉米。但USDA却出乎意料,仅将美豆面积较3月底的调增3.1万英亩降至8951.3万英亩,比市场平均预期的8975万英亩低出2.5万英亩。
  新季美豆单产预计为每英亩48蒲式耳。结合收割面积的预期数据,2017/2018年度美豆产量将为43亿蒲式耳,与上一年度创纪录的产量维持一致。但如果生长状态不理想,无法达到每英亩48蒲式耳的单产,在当前公布种植面积数据不及市场预期的情况下,美豆最终产量大概率将低于43亿蒲式耳。
  2017/2018年度美豆消费量预计为42.35亿蒲,预期我国进口增长及生物燃油增加豆油使用量,是美豆消费增长的主要动力。但由于创纪录的南美大豆产量已对美豆构成压力,美豆期末库存预计将由上一年度同期的8.72亿蒲增至9.63亿蒲。这一数据同样低于此前市场预期。因此,美豆价格在上述两份报告公布后大幅上涨。7月、8月是美豆生长关键期,此间出现的极端天气会对产量造成实质性影响。近期,美国中西部地区天气干热降雨不足,之后的报告仍有较大可能进一步调降美豆种植面积。近日公布的种植面积和季度库存报告或将成为美豆价格的转折点。
  上冲动力明显不足
  CBOT大豆连续两个交易日收阳,7月3日,11月合约最高涨至991.4,收盘报980.6美分/蒲。截至6月27日,CBOT大豆期货和期权空头持仓已创历史新高。基金经理持有的上述净空持仓增至11.86万手,这也是有记录以来空头持仓第二次突破10万手。由于空仓已达历史高位,再增仓概率不大,故这种持仓结构使美豆继续下行空间受限。此外,未来两周的天气模型显示,占全美大豆产量10%以上的南北达科他州依然面临干旱威胁。在当前美豆生长关键期,相关利空已基本被市场消化,天气变化潜在的不确定性对美豆价格的提振作用更加关键。
  国内粕价一改往日颓势,跟随美豆大幅上涨。但结合国内供需面来看,目前仍有部分油厂因胀库而停机,开机率下滑至50%,油厂依然面临较大的库存压力。此外,7月之后,增值税下调的政策启动,未来数月大豆到港量依然庞大,豆粕供应整体仍显宽松。加上下游养殖情况并不乐观,5月生猪存栏及能繁母猪存栏量均环比下降,对豆粕的饲料需求提振有限,故后期豆粕涨势能否持续依然存疑。
  豆粕期权7月3日总成交量增长至单边4.74万手,创历史新高。但7月4日较前一日减少1.54万手,至单边3.2万手,持仓总量为20.65万手。经过周一、周二两个交易日的上涨后,豆粕1709合约已经站上2700—2800元/吨价格区间,但在冲击2800元/吨关口后继续上涨动力明显不足。建议投资者暂时观望为宜,等待外盘美豆天气炒作爆发,可关注买入看涨期权,或做多波动率买入宽跨组合的交易机会。
                                      (作者单位:华泰期货)

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