焦炭 短期存在回调风险
作者:  2017/9/20 0:00:00  来源:原创  浏览:535

 焦炭期货自上市以来,呈现单边下行格局,于2015年12月逐步止跌,2016年开启大幅上涨行情,同年11月达到阶段性高点,上涨幅度达到2.5倍左右,随后步入振荡格局。自2017年6月以来,焦炭上涨行情再次启动,从焦炭指数来看,已上涨逾80%,焦炭期货1801合约创下盘面新高2502.5。从驱动因素来看,上涨初期有基差修复因素,后期有供应偏紧,钢厂需求较好,库存偏低对于焦炭价格的持续提振。
  基差因素带来压制
  目前,焦炭现货经历了七轮调价,累计调涨幅度460元/吨,而同期1709合约上涨1000元/吨左右,大幅高于现货涨幅,基差结构由前期期货贴水25%以上转变为期货升水格局。截至8月28日,董家口准一级冶金焦价格为2260元/吨,焦炭1709合约收盘价为2369元/吨,考虑交割成本后仍处于焦炭期货升水格局。在七轮上调焦价之后,现货市场价格或走稳,虽然焦炭货源偏紧,但期货升水,交割有利润的话,不排除套保及套利资金关注的可能。因此,焦炭继续上行压力增加,调整风险加大。
  产量进一步释放难度大
  今年以来,环保检查趋严对焦炭供给产生了较大影响。截至8月25日,根据Mysteel对全国100家独立焦企样本的统计,产能利用率为81.36%,下降1.3%;日均产量为39.51,下降0.63。焦化企业开工率整体维持在80%以上,但分地区来看,部分地区由于受到环保、安全生产等因素的制约,开工率释放受限。山东、河北一带环保形势较为严峻,钢厂自带焦炉也受到不同程度的限产。目前来看,8月初第四批中央环境保护督察全面启动。从后期来看,焦化企业将面临冬季环保限产的压力。虽然焦化厂利润达到300元/吨,但是对于产量的驱动效应较弱,预计后期供应端压力仍存,产量释放难度较大。
  前期驱动力已明显不足
  钢厂利润维持高位是焦炭价格上涨的驱动因素之一。从4月份以来,钢厂利润逐步拉升,5月份达到千元以上之后持续位于高位。高利润导致钢厂供给持续处于高位。2017年7月,我国生铁产量为6207万吨,粗钢产量为7402万吨,同比分别增长5.1%、10.3%。7月生铁、粗钢产量再创历史新高。高炉产能利用率维持在85%左右,剔除淘汰产能的高炉产能率在90%左右。高产量导致市场对于焦炭的需求旺盛,对于焦炭的采购较为积极,对于焦炭的提价接受度较高。同时,6月份,钢厂利润在千元左右,而同期由于焦炭价格下跌,导致焦化厂利润在盈亏平衡附近。在利润的再分配因素驱动下,焦化企业挺价意愿较强,焦炭利润触底回升。
  目前支撑钢价的主要因素在于供应偏紧格局。而此种格局打破的因素在于后期是否有新增产能投放。目前高炉产能利用率已经达到高位,继续上行空间受限。而电弧炉受制于技术、政策以及原料等影响投产力度低于预期,市场预计10月以后或有增量,具体还需进一步明朗。另外,由于冬季限产,焦炭需求或受到一定抑制。
  目前市场运行的主要逻辑是环保驱动下的供应偏紧,虽然焦化厂开工维持在80%以上,但是局部地区由于环保趋严,配合低库存因素,对于焦炭价格仍存支撑。但由于焦炭连续上涨后,驱动因素有所消化,后市继续上冲动能将有限,短期内调整风险或加大,预计将呈现高位振荡格局。继续关注钢厂利润及焦炭库存指标,如果后期库存累积,或表明供应偏紧局面缓解,焦炭或迎来调整。

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