螺纹钢多头蓄势待发
作者:黄耀伟  2017/10/12 21:52:08  来源:原创  浏览:833

  利空基本消化



  近期,螺纹钢期货持续下跌,环保风暴引发钢材需求下降预期是本轮下跌的主要逻辑。但是,一方面,随着价格的持续下跌,利空因素基本为盘面所消化;另一方面,进入10月份,钢材需求预期将走强。因此,笔者认为,当前螺纹钢的下跌行情接近尾声,空多转换或在短期内出现。
  供应短缺形势有所缓解
  供给侧结构性改革追求的结果是企业利润最大化。据9月16日的“2017中国钢铁技术经济高端论坛”信息,自新一轮债转股实施以来,我国钢铁行业已签订债转股框架协议约1500亿元,涉及中钢、武钢、马钢、河钢等10个钢铁企业。在国家大力推进供给侧结构性改革的背景下,钢铁行业取得了明显的效益。今年1—7月份,中钢协会员企业吨钢利润平均为179元,钢铁行业销售利润率为3.42%,创近6年来新高。这使得钢厂生产热情高涨,螺纹钢供应缺口不断缩小,部分钢厂表示前期缺规格的现象有所缓解。螺纹钢从之前的供应短缺过渡到目前的供需紧平衡状态。
  近期钢厂库存下降,大多流向市场,导致社会库存增加。截至10月7日当周,社会库存周环比大增35.80万吨,至469.10万吨,增幅高达8.26%。同时,终端需求对高价资源不太认可,钢厂主动去库存动向明显。螺纹钢整体库存依然处于低位,钢铁企业或受到环保限产影响减少供给,不排除为了防止钢价大跌主动限产保价的可能,现货价格继续坚挺。钢坯现货价格自9月29日的3480元涨至10月8日的3630元,10月9日又跌到3570元,导致螺纹钢期货冲高回落。
  需求潜力依然较大
  螺纹钢对应的终端需求是房地产和基建。1—8月,全国商品房销售面积累计增长12.7%,增速比1—7月份回落1.3个百分点。1—8月基础设施投资(不含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业)同比增长19.8%,增速比1—7月份回落1.1个百分点。单从数据上看,基建和房地产的驱动因素在减弱。但是,一方面,7月和8月出现的基建投资放缓,并不是全局性放缓,而是结构性调整;另一方面,地产投资的韧性也要强于预期,中国采购经理人指数(PMI)从8月份的51.7攀升到9月份的5年来最高点52.4。这表明螺纹钢的需求力量依然强大。
  “金九银十”是传统的钢材消费旺季,社会库存增长是钢贸商备货的结果。不过,9月份以来市场回调幅度较大,出现旺季不旺的情况。众所周知,钢价上涨时,中间环节囤货明显,一旦钢价下跌,这些货物必定一拥而出,导致行情暴跌。笔者判断,贸易商囤货极有可能是看好螺纹钢仍有上涨动力。这一点表现为螺纹钢现货价格始终高于期货价格,两者的价差(即基差)自9月份以来持续扩大,从月初的56元/吨升至10月9日的261元/吨。也就是说,期货价格跌幅很大,而现货价格跌幅很小。
  低位巨量博弈或为反弹伏笔
  从盘面上看,螺纹钢1801合约自9月1日以来持续下行,从4084元/吨的最高收盘价一路跌到10月9日的收盘价3701元/吨,跌幅9.4%。持仓量也从387万手锐减至306万手,降幅21%。资金的大幅离场使得价格易跌难涨,节后首个交易日的冲高回落更是对后面的反弹不利。不过,由于现货价格较为坚挺,期货短期的大幅下跌也在很大程度上消化了前期的利空因素,预计期货价格继续下行的动力有限。并且1801合约持仓量已下降至8月11日以来最低水平,继续下降的空间也是有限的。10月10日,1801合约巨幅增仓下跌高达4%,逼近9月29日的低点3524元。笔者分析,螺纹钢在低位巨量杀跌但未能创新低,表明下方买盘也是较强的,不排除爆发强劲反弹行情的可能。下方支撑点在3500元/吨附近,阻力点在3800元/吨附近。
                               (作者单位:湘昊量化团队)

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