铜价 先抑后扬为主基调
作者:刘崇娜  2017/11/22 21:19:13  来源:原创  浏览:979

  随着矿企产量恢复性增长,市场焦点重新回到需求端,但下游步入消费淡季,市场对于需求疲软的担忧升温。尽管投资者对中期铜市持乐观态度,重仓持有远月多头合约,但笔者认为远水不解近渴,铜市不宜过度乐观。
  产量恢复性增长
  三季度全球主要矿企产量明显回升,19家企业铜矿三季度产量共计318万吨,环比增长7%,同比增长0.18%。其中,智利国家铜业公司三季度生产52万吨,较去年增加6万吨。必和必拓三季度产量为40.4万吨,较去年同期增加4.9万吨。英美资源较去年同期的13.98万吨增加5.4%,至14.73万吨。哈萨克铜业较去年同期增加3.78万吨,至7.5万吨。巴里克增加0.68万吨,淡水河谷增加0.74万吨。
  进口铜精矿现货TC前期持续走高,截至11月10日,TC持稳在85—93美元/吨,可见铜精矿供应较之前明显宽松。但长单谈判在即,矿山和冶炼厂博弈激烈,短期铜精矿市场呈现供需两弱的情况。
  进口量出现回落
  海关最新数据显示,我国10月未锻造的铜及铜材进口量为33万吨,低于9月的43万吨,为今年以来的次低点。1—10月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为376万吨,较2016年同期下降7.8%。10月铜进口窗口多数时间处于打开状态,但进口数据却录得今年以来的次低点。除了受国庆假期前囤货影响外,主要是废七铜进口企业在禁止进口废七类废铜之前加快采购步伐,对国内精铜市场造成一定的压力。另外,10月冶炼厂开工率维持高位。国家统计局最新数据显示,我国10月精炼铜产量为78.1万吨,同比增加6.3%。1—10月累计产量737.1万吨,累计同比6.3%。
  步入消费淡季
  随着下游进入消费淡季,采购意愿明显减弱,加之9月精炼铜产量及进口量大幅飙涨,国内现货市场近期呈现供大于求、成交清淡的局面。上期所铜库存近三周增加5.5万吨,与国内现货市场宽松的局面表现一致。截至11月17日,三大交易所及保税区库存共计107万吨,较去年同期增加12.9万吨。
  空调行业进入新冷年,9月空调产量为1015.7万台,同比增加14.8%,增速虽明显放缓,但仍为较高水平,因此不必过于悲观。尽管市场对新能源汽车题材的炒作对铜价短期有一定的拉涨作用,但考虑到目前电动汽车的体量仍较小,10月新能源车销量为9万辆,预计全年销售70万辆,对铜需求的实际提振作用仍小。电力行业依然是支撑铜消费的主要动力,电网投资完成额1—9月累计3731.34亿元,累计同比4.63%,增速较1—8月回调3.25%。线缆企业普遍反映远月订单明显减少。综合来看,消费逐渐转淡。
  综上所述,在铜精矿产量恢复性增加,精炼铜产量稳定增长,下游消费转淡的背景下,尽管投资者对中期铜市看好,但是难改铜价短期振荡偏弱的格局。
                               (作者单位:方正中期期货)

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