豆粕反弹高度有限
作者:赵克山  2018/1/23 22:21:24  来源:原创  浏览:1025

受美国农业部月度供需报告偏多影响,美豆期货触底回升,强劲反抽,引领大连豆粕期货振荡上行。展望后市,美豆丰产依旧,出口不畅,而南美天气炒作难成气候,加之内盘豆粕供应宽裕,豆粕期货反弹高度或较为有限。
  美豆出口持续不畅
   本月的美国农业部供需报告又一次让市场分析机构眼镜跌碎一地,预估美豆单产为49.1蒲式耳/英亩,低于市场之前预计的49.5蒲式耳/英亩的水平;总产为43.92亿蒲式耳,低于市场平均预期的44.25蒲式耳;期末库存为4.7亿蒲式耳,低于市场平均预估的4.77亿蒲式耳。报告被市场理解成利多,在报告出台后,美豆绝地反击,收出5连阳。但是我们应注意到,虽然报告数字低于市场预期,但仍处于历史偏高水平,比如总产依旧是历史最高纪录,期末库存不但高于去年同期的3.02亿蒲式耳,也高于上月预估的4.45亿蒲式耳,为近11年来最高水平。
   此外,在本月报告中,USDA下调了本年度大豆出口数字,但目前出口进度大幅落后于去年,该数字存在继续下调的可能。据监测,截至1月11日,美豆出口检验量为123.1万吨,低于上年同期的142.3万吨。2017/2018年度(始于9月1日)美豆出口检验总量为3083.8万吨,比上年度同期的3589.5万吨减少14.1%。
   南美干旱影响有限
   虽然今年出现了拉尼娜现象,但由于级别较小,对南美大豆整体影响较为有限。其中,巴西大豆产区几乎没有出现因拉尼娜导致的干旱,甚至由于降雨较多,影响了早熟豆的如期收获。由于播种面积增加,以及雨水充沛,近期市场分析机构开始调高巴西大豆总产量。据Agroconsult上周在巴西头号大豆产区马托格罗索州的作物巡查预计,该州大豆单产将从去年的每公顷51.5包上升至53包(1包=60公斤)。该机构预计巴西大豆产量将达1.141亿吨,持平上一年度的纪录高位。目前巴西大豆已经开始收获上市,将对美豆出口造成压力。
   另外,阿根廷大豆生产也好于预期,虽然该国受拉尼娜影响,出现相对严重的干旱,但近期随着降雨出现,大豆播种进入尾声。据布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所发布的周度报告,截至1月10日的一周,阿根廷2017/2018年度大豆播种进度提高到94.3%,比一周前提高了6.7个百分点,比去年同期提高2.5个百分点。另外,从2018年1月起,阿根廷大豆出口关税每月下调0.5个百分点,将刺激阿根廷大豆出口。
   豆粕需求难有起色
   元旦假期结束后,油厂开工率迅速回升。截至1月19日当周,全国各地油厂大豆压榨总量为190.5万吨,周环比增加8.8万吨,为连续第二周增加,豆粕产出量也相应上升。由于近期下游提货量下降,油厂豆粕库存仍在增加。据监测,截至1月14日,油厂豆粕库存为90.45万吨,周环比增加2.97万吨,为历史同期最高水平。
   另外,大豆库存以及未来到港量同样较高,为豆粕生产提供保障。据监测,截至1月19日,国内进口大豆库存为623.75万吨,为历史同期最高水平。1月份进口大豆预期到港808.9万吨,2月份预期到港590万吨。
   相比之下,豆粕需求却持续不旺。由于看淡后市,豆粕需求端多采用随用随买策略,市场一直期盼的冬储操作迟迟未能启动。随着节日临近,生猪、肉禽等养殖产品集中出栏以及鸡蛋价格下跌导致淘汰鸡增多,均会导致饲料需求下降。油厂豆粕成交趋淡。据监测,上周油厂豆粕成交量为33.19万吨,明显低于正常单周60万吨的水平。
   结论
   综上所述,美豆反弹仅是对前期市场过度悲观情绪的一种纠偏。由于美豆供应量空前,南美天气炒作难成气候,加之国内豆粕供应宽松,需求难有起色,豆粕期货的反弹空间料较为有限,后市或继续弱势振荡。
                                      (作者单位:金期投资)

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