螺纹钢冬储行情启动
作者:徐卫燕  2018/1/23 22:22:47  来源:原创  浏览:1218

 自去年12月以来,螺纹钢基差以现货下跌的方式得以修复,上海地区三级螺纹钢最低回落至3760元/吨。目前现货价格处于阶段性低位,贸易商冬储启动使得钢价强劲反弹。另外,供应释放空间有限,社会库存整体偏低,主力持仓显示多头占优。在多因素共同作用下,螺纹钢1805合约经过盘整蓄势后增仓上行。
   贸易商开始补库
   截至1月19日,全国钢材社会库存总量回升至933.78万吨,环比增加41.88万吨;钢厂库存224.42万吨,减少23.14万吨。社会库存出现预期内的增长,厂内库存大幅下滑,说明厂内库存向贸易商库存转移,观望已久的贸易商冬储需求逐渐启动,月底前或现大规模主动补库行情。
   终端工地采购意愿增强,市场成交量和心态较为乐观。随着冬储开始,不少钢厂低价订单引发贸易商抢购,现货市场再现淡季不淡现象。目前贸易商库存压力不大,心态良好。钢厂库存下降,随着销售压力的缓解,近日连连上调报价,短期对钢价有较强支撑。
   钢材供应增长有限
   供应方面,去年四季度以来,钢厂降低开工率以应对史上最严厉的去产能政策。即便生产利润高企,供应释放空间也有限。当前,全国盈利钢厂数依然保持在85.28%,全国高炉开工率在64.09%。利润方面,目前螺纹钢利润在986元/吨,较去年12月峰值1971元/吨大幅缩水,现货利润持续高于盘面利润的时期结束,当前较盘面利润1169元/吨贴水183元/吨,目前期货盘面走势相对更强。
   最新数据显示,2017年12月我国生铁产量5472万吨,同比下降4.4%;1—12月我国生铁产量71076万吨,同比增长1.8%。2017年12月我国粗钢产量6705万吨,同比增长1.8%;1—12月我国粗钢产量83173万吨,同比增长5.7%。2017年12月我国钢材产量8779万吨,同比下降1.1%;1—12月我国钢材产量104818万吨,同比增长0.8%。在利润尚可的背景下,钢厂追求产量最大化,但在3月中旬环保限产政策结束前,市场供给问题始终存在。
   期货持仓多头占优
   从期货持仓来看,截至上周五,前20名螺纹钢空头席位总持仓合计为855486手,而前20名多头席位总持仓为957123手,多头以11.9%的优势压制空头。最近几个交易日,空头不断撤退,多头大幅入场,目前主力更倾向于做螺纹钢市场的多头。
   综上所述,笔者认为,短期盘面受资金和情绪影响较大,投机需求启动将成为钢价反弹的主要驱动因素,预计反弹行情持续到月底。但节前也需警惕风险,受年末考核影响,年底资金面偏紧,若期价上涨过快,则容易催生套现行为,从而引发短期回落。
                                   (作者单位:新世纪期货)

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