沪锌 上行动能充足
作者:黎俊  2018/3/12 22:47:51  来源:原创  浏览:928

   提要
   目前境内外锌精矿加工费水平依然偏低,锌精矿供应维持紧缺态势,锌价24500元/吨一线难跌破。而且锌锭进口窗口尚未打开,境外锌锭短期难以流入国内市场,对锌价亦是利好,沪锌有望在开工旺季站上25500元/吨一线。

图为LME锌库存走势


   近期,美国决定对中国出口的钢材和铝材征收反倾销关税,受此影响,有色金属普跌,沪锌主力合约1805一度下探至24500元/吨一线。但从基本面来看,目前锌精矿加工费偏低,供应依然偏紧,3月、4月为锌市下游传统开工旺季,需求或逐步回暖,沪锌有望上涨至25500元/吨一线。
   外强内弱格局延续
   自2017年12月底开始,锌期货库存因为市场进入消费淡季而逐步累积,截至2018年3月9日,上期所锌库存为154475吨,较2017年12月29日的68630吨增加85845吨,增幅达125%。社会库存方面,全国锌锭总库存达到28.96万吨。期现货库存均回升至去年同期水平。
   截至3月9日,LME锌库存为202575吨,虽然在3月5日外盘出现集体交仓,令伦锌下挫,但是从LME锌绝对库存水平来看,依然处于近5年来的低位,这对伦锌有一定的支撑,同样也给沪锌带来一定的提振。
   截至3月9日,锌市沪伦比值为7.47,低于5年均值7.79,外强内弱格局延续,锌锭进口亏损为1135元/吨,亏损将抑制境外锌锭流入国内,短期来看,不会给国内供应端造成压力。
  加工费处于低位
   截至3月9日,上海有色网统计的锌精矿加工费在3250—3850元/吨,水平依然较低。近期,锌价下行,而且加工费处于低位令冶炼厂利润微薄,冶炼厂有可能因此停产检修。短期来看,锌精矿加工费可能继续维持低位。
   境外方面,目前全球锌市供应依然存在缺口,世界金属统计局公布的数据显示,2017年全球锌市场供应短缺71万吨,2016年为供应短缺20.2万吨,供应缺口有所扩大。境外矿山产量依旧偏紧,嘉能可旗下的Lady Lorreta复产以及Antamina增产,但是由于其出售了Trevali锌矿,预计嘉能可2018年产量与2017年产量相当,来自世界最大的新矿商的供应增量有限。
   据报道,五矿资源(MMG Ltd)旗下位于澳大利亚的Century和韦丹塔资源公司(Vedanta Resource)旗下的Lisheen矿场近几年已经资源枯竭。从近期业内会议来看,锌冶炼厂预计将接受较低的加工费用。业内调查显示,矿山支付给冶炼厂,将矿石加工成精炼锌的加工费(TCs)可能下滑至少13%。短期来看,境内外锌精矿预计维持紧缺局面,利好锌价,沪锌1805合约在24500元/吨一线或有较强支撑。
   需求将逐步回暖
   3月、4月是锌产业下游的传统开工旺季,需求在逐步回暖。华北地区需求恢复较为明显,据上海有色网调研,3月初河北邯郸地区因大气污染原因停产、限产,拖累锌消费复苏节奏,但邯郸地区生产已逐步恢复,实际影响较为有限。氧化锌方面,据上海有色网调研,企业现已恢复正常生产,下游终端有备库意愿,部分企业表示氧化锌订单回暖,化工板块表现较好。
   综上所述,目前境内外锌精矿加工费水平仍然偏低,锌精矿供应维持紧缺态势,锌价24500元/吨一线或难跌破。目前锌锭进口窗口尚未打开,境外锌锭短期难以流入国内市场,对锌价亦是利好,虽然前期消费淡季令库存有所回升,但是随着下游需求逐步回暖,届时锌库存将回落,沪锌有望在开工旺季站上25500元/吨一线。           (作者单位:广州期货)

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