抛储主导 棉花偏弱运行
作者:王玉红  2018/3/27 0:41:15  来源:原创  浏览:815

   棉花现货价格稳中回落,3128价格指数报15647元/吨,周环比下跌40元/吨。3月23日抛储折3128价格为15577元/吨,周环比下跌9元/吨。商品现货端感受到来自抛储的压力,跌幅相对较大,但仍相对高于抛储市场。目前阶段性外强内弱格局明显,进口方面的压力并不大,主要是国内供需尤其是国储供应主导。


   商业库存处于近年高位
   国内阶段性供应总体来看较为宽松,商业库存处于近年同期较高的位置。截至2月底,国内商业库存为370万吨左右,从近期购销数据来测算,截至目前商业库存预计下降到350万吨左右。该库存水平仍高于去年抛储前的240万吨水平及2016年的100万吨水平。而且从具体的上下游库存状态可以看出,棉花商业库存偏高,而纺织企业工业库存不高不低,产品纱线坯布库存偏高,终端需求持续性并不足。


   市场采购心态平和
   国储棉自3月12日抛售以来,投放量维持在3万吨/天左右。第一周开抛之后成交量和价格均下滑,之后价格开始相对稳定。
   由于新疆棉性价比较好,目前下游采购主要以新疆棉为主,新疆棉抛储价与地产棉价差在832吨左右,仍在市场的可接受价差1000元/吨之内,性价比相对偏高,新疆棉基本处于100%成交状态,也反映出实际市场还是有一定的需求,但加价幅度基本在500元/吨左右,也反映出市场采购心态平和。
   随着新疆棉投放量渐少,且与地产棉价差靠近1000元/吨后,市场对地产棉的接受度可能会增加,进而在一定程度上抬升抛储棉的总体成交率,对市场构成短期支撑。但通盘估计的话,即便如此幅度也应有限,因为在供应充足的背景下,三方(国储地产棉、国储新疆棉、贸易商及加工厂棉花现货)博弈的结果,更有可能的是棉价出现振荡下跌。
   
   图为抛储成交率与棉价
                                         (作者单位:元邦投资)

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