铁矿石 短期走强概率大
作者:沈巍  2018/9/6 21:33:20  来源:原创  浏览:1037

   铁矿石价格自年初以来一直在底部徘徊,向上难有趋势性行情,向下受到成本端刚性支撑。预计短期内铁矿石价格或振荡上行。
   成本支撑显刚性
   6月中旬后,驱动铁矿石价格小幅反弹的三个因素是:主要航线运费上涨;人民币大幅贬值;黑色板块共振。随着原油价格强势冲高,铁矿石运费不断攀升,6月至今,BDI指数上涨36.6%,最高逼近1800,为4年来最高。主要航线方面,西澳到青岛价格上涨20.1%至9.027美元/吨,巴西图巴朗到青岛价格上涨27.6%至22.627美元/吨。预计高运费还将持续,将阶段性支撑铁矿石价格。此外,美元兑人民币即期汇率一度突破6.9关口,促使铁矿石价格重心上移。
   二季度FMG的C1成本12.17美元/湿吨,较一季度下跌0.97美元/湿吨。按照澳洲发往中国海运费9.5美元/吨估算,加上管理费0.37美元/吨、税费2.5美元/吨,到岸完全成本约24.54美元/吨。按9%的水份,再考虑PB粉对超特粉的价差,美元兑人民币汇率6.85,最终折算到盘面价格为445元/干吨,较我们6月初测算的417元/吨成本上涨28元/吨。不难看出,虽然C1成本下降,但受到海运费走高以及人民币贬值因素影响,边际成本反而抬升。而随着1901合约振荡走跌,当前盘面价格已接近边际成本。
   内矿减产较为明显
   我国1—7月原矿产量3.88亿吨,累计同比降幅达到40.5%,跌幅继续扩大。这主要源于外矿的挤压,叠加国内环保动作频频,使得一些矿山生产受限。Mysteel统计的266家铁精粉日均产量较去年同期下降0.8万吨/天至41.5万吨/天,今年以来产量始终低于往年同期。我们认为伴随着海外矿山的挤压以及国内环保因素,预计下半年内矿产量仍将明显减少,铁精粉或维持8.7%的下滑幅度,Mysteel统计的样本产量将减少1350万吨左右,按此折算,我国全年铁精粉产量累计将减少2450万吨。
   港口库存持续去化
   港口库存自6月以来连续走低,截至8月底,港口库存环比上月大幅下跌677万吨至1.47亿吨,为今年以来最低。主要原因在于,一是天气以及泊位关停检修影响,二是得益于国内钢厂利润高企。当前,全国钢厂高炉产能利用率涨至76.54%,连续4周走高,唐山地区限产对铁水的影响有所转弱。据了解,目前河北市场仍未接到明确的环保限产通知,钢厂提货积极性再度趋强,短期利好铁矿石价格走势。
   总体来看,人民币大幅贬值以及海运费攀升夯实了铁矿石价格底部。鉴于当前的铁矿石估值偏低,操作上,对1901合约而言,可在470—480元/吨区间尝试倒金字塔建立多单,下破465元/吨止损。

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