股强债弱格局初现端倪
作者:汤林闽  2018/9/13 20:51:45  来源:原创  浏览:1817

   随着国内减税降费等利好政策落地,国内经济基本面逐步向好,股市阶段性底部正在形成。期债8月出现较大幅度回落,显露见顶迹象,股强债弱格局显现。


   2018年上半年,我国股指和期债走势呈明显的债强股弱状态。当前,股强债弱格局初现端倪。

   图为上证指数日线
   利好政策加速落地
   主要逻辑有三个方面。一是我国经济当前正在步入回升通道。从经济数据来看,7月、8月一些主要经济指标出现增速(或绝对值)下降的情况,但是下降的幅度均放缓,一些指标则出现回升,经济韧性较强。例如,7月对外贸易相关指标的波动幅度整体上是今年以来最小的;7月制造业PMI、非制造业商务活动指数的下降幅度都比较有限,8月这两个指标则出现回升;货币供应量增速也出现回升;社会零售商品总额和社会融资规模的降幅都较之前缩小。
   从政策来看,7月底中共中央政治局会议部署下半年经济工作,稳定经济的政策或密集出台,或加速落地,政府投资和减税降费这两个扩大内需的主要政策工具相继发力。7月、8月地方债发行规模连创新高,合计发行超过1.5万亿元,9月很可能出现单月规模发行破万亿的情况,将给地方政府投资项目注入足够资金,大大推动政府投资进展。减税降费明显提速,8月30日,国常会再推新举措支持实体经济发展;新个人所得税标准将于10月1日起正式施行,中低收入者受益明显。减税降费的加速落实,将对消费、投资等多方面都产生非常有利的影响。7月、8月经济数据体现出较强韧性,政策效果的陆续体现将会促使经济步入回升通道。经济基本面的好转将成为股指转强的有力支撑,对于具有较强避险功能的期债会产生一定的压力。

   图为五债主力合约日线
   美国经济强中带弱
   二是美国经济显现出强中带弱的迹象。7月美国制造业PMI和非制造业PMI双双大幅降低,制造业PMI降低2.1至58.1;非制造业PMI大降3.4至55.7,年内首次跌落至56以下。这说明美国经济景气程度没有延续其上半年一以贯之的强势,出现了一定程度的疲软,很大程度上反映出美国挑起贸易摩擦的做法所产生的负面效果,开始传导并影响到美国自身。
   同时,7月美国的货币供应量增速也出现了下降,M2环比增幅0.24%,较上月降低了0.37个百分点,这是逆美国经济整体走势的情况。考虑到货币供应量是美联储货币政策关注的核心变量标,这一变化折射出来的弱势信号不应被忽略。美国经济若不能继续今年以来的强劲,那么强美元的基础就会被削弱,人民币资产的价值将得到提升,有利于我国股指向好。
   股指底部逐步形成
   三是股指阶段性底部正逐步形成,期债向上压力较大。股指在2018年上半年整体处于下降趋势中,跌破2700点后,先后于7月和8月各创出一次年内新低2691.02点和2651.11点。可以观察到,跌幅最大的时段是从5月21日起到7月6日,一个半月内股指向下振幅逾500点,但7月之后市场振幅明显缩窄,向下遇到的支撑越来越强。
   在我国经济现好转迹象、美元强势减弱的背景下,股市阶段性底部正在逐步形成。短期股指走势可能还要受到内外因素的影响,即使短暂击破2638点,对底部形成过程也不会产生较大影响。期债经历上半年牛市并创出年内新高后,显露见顶迹象,8月出现较大幅度回落。虽然之后有所企稳,但在宏观基本面向好的背景下,期债向上动力减弱。



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