甲醇 新一轮上攻即将展开
作者:韩冰冰 徐林  2018/10/15 21:10:48  来源:原创  浏览:790

   8月以来,甲醇在伊朗问题不断发酵和环保限产预期的驱动下,呈现高位宽幅振荡走势。笔者认为,随着冬季的临近,供需矛盾将逐步兑现,甲醇有望摆脱当前的振荡区间,演绎上攻行情。
   四季度有望摆脱振荡区间
   在环保和天气等因素影响下,今年企业多为错峰减产,且部分企业已加装了环保装置,限产情况或不及去年。从目前情况来看,虽然今年提前对天然气做了储备,在减产持续时间和规模上料有所下降,但影响依然不容忽视。
   考虑到冬季甲醇利润极高,企业维持高开工率意愿强,及煤制甲醇污染小,符合环保要求等因素影响,煤制甲醇开工率在四季度仍有望维持较高水平,预计甲醇产量将提升20万吨/月。此外,新装置的投产也将提供额外的供应量。9月投产的晋煤华昱以及即将投产的山东鲁西、恒力石化、黑龙江宝泰隆,后期均有外售甲醇的意向,预计能够提供15万吨/月的增量。煤炭端存量产能和新增产能提供的增量,在一定程度上可缓解因天然气紧张和焦炉气限产造成的供应偏紧。但综合来看,甲醇国内供应端产能在冬季将至少减少10万吨/月。
   进口难以出现增量
   近期美国和伊朗新装置相继投产,是影响四季度我国甲醇进口的潜在变量,主要体现在,第一,美国175万吨新装置投产后,将由甲醇进口国转变为出口国。从货物流向推测其主要出口到韩国、日本等亚洲国家。但考虑到中美贸易摩擦的影响,我国对产地为美国的甲醇加征25%关税,美国新装置的投产对我国甲醇进口影响有限。第二,根据目前的情况测算,随着伊朗165万吨新装置的稳定运行,预计后期我国从伊朗进口甲醇的数量将有望增加12万吨,最大可恢复至与去年相当的水平。所以,不管是环比今年二三季度,还是同比去年同期,这部分增加量均有限。
   最近,新西兰230万吨装置负荷降半、伊朗165万吨老装置因故停车、沙特110万吨装置在检修,恐对10—11月我国甲醇进口造成影响。此外,12月贸易商为争取在下一年合同谈判过程中占据优势,一般会控制进口量。因此,预估四季度甲醇进口难以出现较大增量。
   估值尚在正常范围内
   横向来看,甲醇内外价差仍处于今年以来的均值以下,盘面价格低于华东现货价格。二季度以来,进口甲醇折算人民币价格一直高于国内现货价格,近期平均价格倒挂约170元/吨,与去年同期水平相当。目前1901期货合约价格贴水华东现货约50元/吨,贴水幅度处在历史同期正常水平,1901合约价格并没有被高估。
   纵向来看,传统下游利润超预期好转,产业链利润结构矛盾不大,烯烃端利润薄弱,利润分配矛盾较为突出。在醋酸和二甲醚带动下,目前传统下游综合利润约700元/吨,较去年同期提升约200元/吨,整体开工负荷也较去年提升约3%。因此,传统下游在四季度将为甲醇提供坚实的需求支撑。
   新兴下游甲醇制烯烃企业生产利润一直在盈亏平衡线附近挣扎。近期因甲醇价格大幅上行,生产利润被压缩至-500元/吨,与甲醇1100元/吨的生产利润形成鲜明对比,产业利润分配矛盾较为突出。一旦企业因利润持续不佳被迫减负停车,将对甲醇上行形成拖累,是后期的主要风险关注点。
   综合来看,在四季度国内甲醇供应收缩,且进口增量有限,并叠加当前甲醇估值仍维持在合理水平的背景下,甲醇1901合约依然有望上演冬季行情。建议回调到3250元/吨一线入场,3700元/吨左右考虑止盈,止损位设在3100元/吨附近。
                                       (作者单位:信达期货)

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