利用衍生品工具构建核心竞争力
作者:陈冬林  2018/10/30 20:36:49  来源:原创  浏览:1010

   钢企经营稳定性面临挑战



   10月26—27日,“2019年钢铁产业链发展形势高峰论坛”在杭州召开。会上有关专家表示,当前钢材市场价格处于相对较高水平,预计四季度钢材价格振荡运行,原料端焦炭价格或振荡走高,铁矿石价格也有望平稳回升。在此背景下,钢铁行业高利润与经营稳定性面临挑战。深入运用期货、期权等衍生品工具,将风险管理与日常生产经营相结合,将成为钢铁企业下一阶段发展的核心竞争力之一。
   钢铁行业高利润面临挑战
   谈及今年钢铁产业的发展情况,钢之家网站董事长兼总经理吴文章在会上表示,今年钢铁企业的整体利润水平较以往有明显提高。展望明年的市场,除了市场节奏依然难以把握外,钢铁企业或同时面临钢材需求不确定性与下游原料价格抬升的压力。钢材需求端,随着基建投资企稳回升,建筑用钢材价格依然有望保持强势。但在目前工业增加值、下游行业利润呈现下行态势的情况下,工业用钢需求面临下行压力,整体来看钢材下游需求存在结构化风险。
   相较于需求端的不确定性,原料端成本上行的风险得到多位与会人士的认同。南京钢铁市场部部长张秋生表示,受制于环保限产,钢价高位波动,钢厂维持高利润,明年原料价格重心或不断上移,叠加环保治理和人工成本抬升,成本上升继续压缩钢厂利润。钢铁企业积极运用期货等衍生品工具进行原料端套期保值的需求将愈加紧迫。
   张秋生表示,全球铁矿石供给继续增加,但增量放缓。预计2019年五大矿山产量12.74亿吨,较2018年增加3000万吨左右。但矿山扩产接近尾声,后期继续扩产空间有限。
   “与此同时,国产铁矿石产量继续下滑。预计2018年铁矿石原矿产量7.8亿吨,较2017年下降4.5亿吨,同比下降36.5%,考虑到统计口径因素,折合成铁精粉预计至少减少5000万吨。”张秋生说。
   焦炭同样因为环保因素对钢厂的成本端造成冲击。张秋生表示,目前环保趋严,对高品质焦炭需求增加。随着小型高炉逐渐淘汰、高炉大型化,低强度焦炭的需求下滑,钢厂对准一级以上的顶装焦需求将进一步加大,后期优、劣质焦炭的的价差有望扩大。
   对于后期焦炭的供需关系,吴文章表示,预计2019年焦炭产量4.2亿吨,较2018年下降1.2%;出口1000万吨,较2018年小幅增长,未来国内焦炭供应依然相对偏紧。
   钢企综合运用衍生品工具
   在下游需求存在不确定以及原料端价格上涨挤压利润的预期下,综合深入运用期货、期权等衍生品工具,成为钢铁企业下一步发展的关键。会上有关专家表示,相较于传统的套期保值,铁矿石基差贸易在帮助企业规避绝对价格大幅波动风险的同时,还能满足企业个性化的生产经营需要。另外,借助场外期权等衍生品工具来实现库存优化、钢厂加工利润综合保值,也得到越来越多产业企业的关注。
   会上,嘉吉金属事业部战略客户经理杜彬彬介绍了嘉吉与河钢集团的铁矿石基差贸易模式,得到了参会人员尤其是钢铁企业代表的关注和认可。他表示,基差贸易在国际范围内是原油、油脂、有色等大宗商品广泛使用的贸易方式,具体报价形式为“期货基准价+基差”的方式,基差价格因约定货物品质、交割地点、交割方式不同,由买卖双方商定。
   “本次与河钢进行的基差贸易,约定交货标的可以选择主流粉矿、块矿和精粉,交货期限为1—6个月预售,交货数量为5000—20000吨,交货港口可以根据钢厂生产经营的需要,在日照、青岛、曹妃甸、京唐、连云港之间选择。”杜彬彬说。
   大商所铁矿石期货以实物交割、人民币结算为基础,市场规模和流动性充足,期货价格很好地反映了市场供需变化,是开展基差贸易的坚实基础。杜彬彬表示,目前在大商所的支持下,多家期货公司、贸易商和钢厂都在积极推动基差贸易模式。
   目前,利用场外期权等衍生品工具进一步对利润进行精细化管理,也成为越来越多钢铁企业的选择。申万智富投资有限公司副总经理王敏楠表示,场外期权与传统的期货套保相比,具有占用资金少、易于操作、产品可个性化定制等特点。例如,钢厂可以与上下游具备期现结合能力的贸易商开展含权贸易,价格波动风险通过附加条款的方式在贸易合同中得以规避,钢厂也同时通过对买入原料价格上限与卖出成材价格下限的确定,提前对利润进行了锁定,从而大大提升了经营的稳定性。另外,钢厂还可以进一步运用期权工具对现有库存进行优化管理,从而实现增加利润的效果。

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