巴西中西部干旱或持续大豆产量存在下调由头
作者:孙开源  2019/1/21 21:26:02  来源:原创  浏览:380

   本周,位于太平洋两侧的中美两国的气温将明显回升。我国江淮、江南等地最高气温有望达到20℃,且昼夜温差明显;美国寒冷空气仍影响德克萨斯部分地区,但白天气温回升幅度明显。美国密西西比河流域预计有偏强降水(雪)发生,我国西南一带降水预期同样偏强。农产品生长与天气变化的矛盾体现在南美洲。随着一茬大豆收获的推进,前期干旱带来的产量折损逐渐体现,400万—500万吨减产是一些机构给出的判断。未来,南美洲天气依然不乐观,巴西中西部干旱问题可能继续发酵。
   玉米
   本周,我国黑龙江北部将出现10mm降水,转换为降雪指标,也是10cm左右,主要影响大兴安岭及长白山一带。东北地区气温变化不大。不过,吉林、辽宁一带年际间气温较常年偏高。数据显示,目前,东北四省售粮进度整体较去年偏慢20%,但短时天气尚不足以对“地趴粮”等存粮带来明显影响。本周,华北地区继续干燥,对物流影响不大,只是临近年关,玉米的购销活动将减弱。
   国外方面,虽然目前巴西部分产区干旱已经形成共识,但对玉米产量的影响远小于大豆,相关机构对玉米减产数据的预估较上月减少约10万吨。本周,巴西中西部干燥问题恐加剧,晴朗干燥的天气模式令玉米等作物的生长承压。而巴西南部的降水有望持续,有利于缓解土壤墒情。
   大豆
   本周,巴西南部产区降水活动频繁,而中西部(以南马托格罗索为主)将出现数日的干燥天气,这给机构下调大豆产量带来了依据。上周,阿根廷中部及北方核心大豆带形成密集降水,个别时段和地区出现暴雨。鉴于阿根廷大豆播种仍在收尾,偏强的雨水环境对大豆产量形成不利影响。本周,阿根廷北方天气转干,有利于大豆生长。
   巴西大豆产量仍承压,阿根廷天气条件略好,有益大豆产量形成,但暴雨和强降雨偏多,对初播大豆生产不利,后续产量有待观察。
   冬小麦
   本周,我国北方麦区气温较上周变化不大,预计周中期霜冻线南压至江淮一带,且昼夜温差较大,最高气温有望升至20℃。对比来看,当前,我国北方整个冬小麦产区平均气温较常年偏高3℃—5℃,小麦生长速度加快。华北一带,豫北、鲁西北等冬小麦产区本周及未来一周降水预期仍不明显,春节期间若再缺乏降水,气象干旱将进一步延续。后期若发生诸如倒春寒和偏强的雨涝现象,将加重冬小麦后期长势及产量水平的负面影响。
   目前,华北地区小麦生产仍依赖有效灌溉,天气情况左右着小麦的生产前景。
   上周,我国最低价拍卖的3005106吨小麦中,成交99961吨,成交率为3.32%,成交均价为2402元/吨。其中,最高价为2470元/吨,最低价为2310元/吨。
                                                    (作者单位:中华粮网)

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