利好预期修正 期指上行暂歇
作者:毛磊  2019/4/22 21:43:56  来源:原创  浏览:542

   随着经济数据向好,政策托底预期降温。短期市场需要修正此前过度乐观的政策预期。此外,宏观数据的回落以及政策面的变化,导致市场对“估值牛”转为“盈利牛”的信心减弱。市场近期调整压力有所加大,不过,我们认为市场对改革红利释放的预期仍不足,期指调整过后依然存在反弹可能。


   周一,期指高开后受到部分强周期品种的拖累,出现显著调整。随着消息面的持续发展,今年以来指数的反弹,驱动因素面临修正与切换。

   市场预期再度迎来修正

   对于今年的这轮春季反弹行情,我们一直从政策、经济数据以及外围市场表现三大因素分析。对比2012年、2013年以及2016年的春季反弹行情,导致市场反弹结束的因素,无非就是托底政策转向、经济回落或者是外盘股指下跌带动。消息面来看,市场对于政策托底力度降低的预期升温。在上周五中央政治局会议中,传递出一季度经济总体平稳,好于预期,开局良好的信号。因此市场认为,后期诸如降准等力度较大的托底政策出台的可能性有所降低,将更加注重推动经济高质量发展上来。此外,一季度热点城市楼市交投升温,会议重新强调要坚持“房住不炒”的定位。市场此前一度出现的放宽楼市调控政策的预期被证伪。综合来看,由于此前市场对于刺激政策的预期过高,甚至对货币信贷数据过度解读为“大水漫灌”重新出现,因此在一季度经济形势好于预期的情况下,市场需要修复过高的刺激政策预期。

   当前,我们认为市场的关注焦点过度集中于托底政策领域,但对于改革方面的政策关注度却不高,忽视了新形势下改革红利进一步释放的可能。上周五中金所宣布进一步优化股指期货交易制度,有利于吸引包括外资在内的中长期资金等机构资金入市买入股票,增加股市的稳定性。这实际上是当前改革、开放政策红利的一种体现。从A股上市公司层面来看,格力集团拟转让格力电器15%股权,一汽集团、南北船的整体上市,均表明国资国企的混改有所提速。上周末,证监会方星海副主席的两场公开讲话,均传递出将更高层次推进资本市场对外开放。在改革、开放提速的大环境下,我们认为当前市场对于金融等领域持续性的开放红利预期仍不足,若后期相关靴子落地改善风险偏好,指数在大蓝筹品种的带动下,企稳反弹的可能性很大。

   短期宽幅振荡  中期看政策

   从经济数据表现看,一季度包括货币信贷,实体层面的数据整体好于预期,对应到3月底以来沪指从3000点上攻至最高3288点,市场的这波10%的反弹,已充分反映了经济悲观情绪的修复。从经济角度看,我们认为市场将重新进入到观察期,盈利层面驱动指数的力道将转弱。近期一些高频数据有所回落,今年4月1日至4月22日,六大发电集团耗煤量较去年同期下滑3.4%,而3月则增长4.21%。乘联会数据显示,3月乘用车零售量174万辆,降幅12.1%。今年4月1日至4月20日,30大中城市商品房成交面积较去年同期增长18.23%,3月同比上涨21.89%。在楼市放松政策预期被证伪的情况下,市场的买房热度或有所回落。综合来看,在市场预期经济托底力度减弱的情况下,投资者对宏观展望或再度增加些许悲观看法,指数走势的“踟蹰”也在所难免。

   综合来看,我们认为在市场预期托底政策边际减弱的情况下,指数的估值修复很难有进一步抬升空间。经济层面预期的修复,也受到高频数据走弱的拖累,政策托底力度预期降温,经济自身修复动能仍存担忧。因此,期指近期的宽幅波动在所难免。不过,等待相关改革、开放的政策利好落地,指数的企稳反弹亦可期待。    (作者单位:国泰君安期货)


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