甲醇向下考验2200点关口
作者:崔志明  2019/6/28 21:03:37  来源:原创  浏览:979

   基本面相对较弱



进入6月以来,虽然原油有所反弹(WTI再次升至60美元/桶附近,布伦特涨至70美元/桶边缘),但依旧处于偏低水平,暂时对于大宗品提振不大。甲醇期货主力合约振荡运行,波动幅度有限。雨季来临,甲醛等传统下游企业开工降低,基本面偏弱。内地套利窗口关闭,贸易商操作难度加大,货源流通速度降低。虽然月内甲醛企业维持盈利,但处于持续缩水中,醋酸、MTBE利润压缩至成本线附近,二甲醚企业亏损,产业利润萎缩。业者心态偏空,多地跌至年内新低,截至目前,内蒙古在1800元/吨附近,山西1900元/吨左右,鲁北下游接货2050元/吨附近(据悉个别略低)。

从往年同期看,当下已处年内偏低水平,部分业者心态开始出现分歧。虽然仍有部分对后市依旧看空,但面对当前风险相对较小的市场价格,部分人士尝试抄底的心理出现。接下来该如何操作?

基差有望扩大

进入5月以来,外盘套利逐步开启并扩大,进口货趋于增加,5月达到76万吨,环比增加13万吨左右,港口供应增加明显,烯烃企业亏损严重,现货价格难以推涨。在成本等方面支撑下,期货价格相对坚挺,基差持续收窄,目前仅在-50元/吨左右。后期看,在外盘套利尚存及港口累库等情况下,现货基本面暂时没有大幅调整的可能,而在资金、商品联动性(6月中旬以来,PP涨幅8.5%、塑料涨7.4%、中国原油涨10%)等方面影响下,MA或有走高态势,基差有进一步扩大的可能。

外盘套利尚可  进口预期攀升

今年以来,虽然外盘套利窗口开启幅度并不大,但稳定性相对较高,多数处于成本线附近波动。进入6月以来,进口利润进一步扩大,最高每吨达百元附近。伊朗ZPC1#165万吨/年甲醇装置已于6月23日附近重启,2#165万吨/年装置计划6月底恢复,同时沙比克一套175万吨/年甲醇装置亦于6月23日附近恢复,由此看来,6月进口不减,或达80万吨以上,7月减少或不多。短期看,港口大概率情况下或依旧处于累库状态,6月江苏库存平均在40万吨左右,7月有望达到50万吨附近。

内地供应趋增

进入7月,除新奥一套60万吨/年甲醇装置计划检修25天,陕西咸阳化学60万吨/年甲醇装置7月初有检修计划外,其余多数装置处于重启中。其中,内蒙古世林30万吨/年装置已经重启,鲁西80万吨/年甲醇装置逐步恢复中,上海华谊、陕西润中清洁能源、河南心连心、山西同煤广发等约400万吨装置皆计划在7月中旬前恢复,多数用于我国中西部,内地供应趋于增加。

虽然神华榆林60万吨/年MTO装置7月15日附近计划检修5天左右(其间甲醇外采量累计减少3万吨左右),但近期内蒙古久泰60万吨/年MTO装置开工升至七成附近,除自身配套甲醇装置日供应3000吨左右产品外,暂时少量甲醇需要外采,后期开工有望进一步提升。据悉,南京诚志新建二期60万吨/年MTO装置目前已经处于试车中。外加其一期30万吨/年MTO装置,理论上甲醇年需求量达到270万吨左右,处于沿海地区甲醇年需求量企业排行榜首位。剔除自身配套50万吨/年甲醇装置外,每年理论甲醇外采量达220万吨左右,全国范围仅次于江苏斯尔邦。若试车顺利,不排除7月开始增量供应的可能。另外,鲁西集团新建30万吨/年MTO装置计划7月投产,具体情况有待进一步跟踪。暂时看,需求层面变化不大,后期及时关注以上几套烯烃装置的运行情况。

另外,目前山东部分炼厂开工较低,后期关注其恢复情况。

综上,我们认为,我国甲醇基本面暂时相对较弱,在无突发因素出现情况下,市场或继续偏弱整理为主。但若期货持续走高(目前盘面升水西北现货500—550元/吨附近),盘面无风险套利打开,东西部货源流通开启,业者心态支撑下,市场不排除出试探性走高的可能。

7—8月,若烯烃等下游需求恢复情况如期兑现,行情或相对乐观。关注中美贸易磋商影响下我国相关指导性政策的出台、新建MTO装置运行情况以及进口预期等方面。               (作者单位:隆众资讯)


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