股指反攻缺乏基本面支撑
作者:  2019/7/10 21:18:31  来源:原创  浏览:285

  上证综指或重回2850—3000点振荡区间




在中美贸易摩擦缓和窗口打开后,股指的反弹力度不如预期,近期有所回调。美联储降息预期下修以及6月宏观经济数据或成为近期股市风险点,股指存在回调压力。此外,科创板临近上市,对资金面也形成脉冲式影响。

美联储降息预期下修,对A股的影响短空长多。上周五公布的美国非农数据显著优于预期,6月非农新增就业22.4万人,较5月的7.2万人大幅回升,也高于市场预期的16万人,强劲的就业数据打消部分对于美国经济衰退的担忧,美国降息预期有所削弱。这从CME的美联储观察数据中能看出端倪,非农数据公布后,美联储7月降息概率保持100%不变,但降息1次的概率上升,降息2次的概率下降。上周,欧央行再度释放鸽派言论,澳大利亚央行降息25BP,连续第二个月降息,全球货币宽松预期依旧,只是美联储降息预期有一定的下修。6月底之后美联储降息预期已经饱和,方向上只有边际减弱空间,若美联储降息预期减弱,对于A股的影响是短期利空长期利多。

短期看,负面影响有二,一方面支撑美元反弹,美元指数在非农数据公布后连续走强,人民币汇率承压,而人民币汇率对A股有指向作用;另一方面,降息预期减弱将打击由宽松预期带来的全球市场乐观情绪,对A股的影响会反映在外资的阶段性流出。长期看,美联储降息基本势在必行,只是时间和节奏问题,只要美联储进入宽松周期,我国即具备了宽松的空间,但是否宽松还是要看自身经济环境,因此美联储短期降息预期下降对我国流动性环境影响不大。此外,美国经济具备韧性,避免了美联储进行衰退式降息。若美国经济出现大滑坡,全球经济衰退的强度将会大于无风险收益率下降的幅度,容易引发全球性股灾,包括A股在内的新兴市场股市难以独善其身。因此,美国经济缓慢下行,无风险收益率有序下降,中长期看是对于全球股市最佳的环境。

6月基本面难有正贡献,A股上攻乏力。本周起将陆续公布6月基本面数据,但基本面难以为股市提供正向贡献。社融方面,上周银保监会公布数据显示,上半年新增人民币贷款9万多亿元。今年一季度人民币贷款累计58000亿元,即二季度人民币贷款仅有3万多亿元,规模远小于一季度,也低于去年同期,信用扩张受阻将压制我国经济复苏,或需要进一步的信用政策刺激。工业生产方面,6月制造业PMI为49.4%,与前值持平,连续两个月处于荣枯线以下。高频指标六大电厂耗煤6月同比降10.12%,较5月跌幅收窄,但仍为负增长,预示6月工业增加值或将继续回落。物价方面,6月PMI出厂价格和PMI主要原材料购进价格双双大幅下行,分别下滑3.6%和2.8%,据此推断6月PPI同比会有较大幅的下滑,甚至有转负的风险。因此在接下来的一周,我们预计信用、“价”、“量”这几方面的数据均不会超预期,甚至进一步走弱,宏观经济延续磨底态势,基本面对于A股的负面影响还在消化过程中。

科创板分流效应不强,对资金面有脉冲式影响。周一A股大跌,适逢科创板临近,部分分析将二者关联起来,但我们认为科创板不构成本次股市下跌的理由。日前已确定首批25家科创板企业,将于7月22日上市。据统计,这25家科创板企业的拟募集资金总额为310.89亿元,沪市市值超过30万亿元,科创板融资规模仅为存量的千分之一左右,且申购时间分布在今明两周,因此平均到单日的影响很小。同时,由于目前采取中签后缴款的打新制度,无需提前冻结资金,因此在可比环境下,科创板上市前对于存量资金的分流效应理应弱于当年创业板上市前。虽然科创板对于A股的分流效应不会太强,但也需要留意中签后集中缴款的日期,分别是本周五以及下周一、周二,届时会对股市资金面形成一定的压力。

近期股指反攻乏力,一方面是由于此前对于贸易问题的乐观情绪已经部分释放,另一方面或许反映出目前投资者对于基本面的担忧情绪。在前期中美贸易摩擦缓和及美联储降息预期升温的情况下,预期有下修风险。未来一段时间,人民币汇率或再遇贬值压力,基本面数据难以提供支撑力量,叠加阶段性反弹后兑现收益的意愿,股指有一定的回调压力,上证综指或重回2850—3000点振荡区间。


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