三季度PVC价格新高可期
作者:李佩瑾  2019/7/18 21:32:36  来源:原创  浏览:520

   2019年以来,PVC期现货季节性走势尤为明显。进入6月后,季节性走势有所差异,主要受到G20峰会影响,市场观望情绪较浓。“金九银十”旺季需求预期犹存。在供需影响下,三季度PVC有望再创新高。


   2019年以来,PVC期现货季节性走势尤为明显。春节前受节前备货影响,价格小幅反弹。节后库存累积超预期,PVC价格大幅回落。3月底随着春季检修的开始以及各类安全事故影响,价格出现大幅上涨,一度突破7100高位。进入6月后,季节性走势有所差异,主要受到G20峰会影响,市场观望情绪较浓,6月初以横盘振荡为主。在外围消息面稳定后,PVC价格再次走出季节性上涨走势。从基本面看,PVC在三季度预期将会出现年内高点。

   电石接连上涨  成本支撑力度增强

   回顾年内电石价格走势,2、3月受煤炭安全事故及环保检查影响,电石开工率降低,价格逐步企稳反弹。4月安全检查力度加大,中旬时,受到影响的电石产能达到全国总产能的5%左右,电石价格由此快速拉涨,创下年内新高。5月PVC进入集中检修期,电石需求转弱,同时前期安全检查影响弱化,电石开工有所提升。

   供需失衡下,电石价格大幅下跌,在此期间,部分电石炉因利润亏损而被迫停车。后期随着6月底PVC开工率的回升,电石再次呈现出供不应求的局面,价格出现大幅反弹。

   展望后期电石价格走势,短期电石开工难以恢复至较高水平,价格仍有小幅上涨空间,但与4月上涨逻辑有所不同的是,当前环保力度相对较小,因此预计价格难以达到此前高度。短期看,电石价格上涨从成本端对PVC起到支撑作用。

   年内产能投放偏少  供应压力有限

   2019年全年PVC计划投产产能总计为146万吨,国内扩能相比PP、PE较少。截止到7月,已扩能的企业包括陕西北元、山西瑞恒、泰州联成及宁夏金昱元,总计产能为70万吨。由于二季度国内发生了较多化工类安全事故,长期检修装置有所增多,同时也导致年内PVC春季检修损失量超过过去几年同期,对冲了一部分新增产能投产带来的供应增量。从产量预估数据上计算,1—6月供应增速约为1.35%,全年国内供应增速预计为3.3%。

   在供应保持较低增速背景下,虽然需求增速也受国内宏观经济影响有所放缓,但总体看,年内供需维持紧平衡概率较大。

   房地产开工数据表现良好

   由于PVC下游制品中70%以上部分与房地产高度相关,房地产开工情况将决定PVC需求表现。从盖楼周期角度看,新开工后1—3个月为打地基阶段,主要需求为螺纹钢和水泥,打完地基之后将会搭排架,放置空心板,架设钢管,浇筑混凝土,并进行预埋管道,此时将会订购PVC管道,管材生产商接到订单后采购PVC原料。因此,从时间周期角度看,新开工对应的将是3—6个月之后的PVC需求。

   根据统计局7月15日发布的房地产数据,1—6月,房屋新开工面积105509万平方米,增长10.1%,增速回落0.4个百分点。从房屋新开工数据看,2019年1—6月房屋新开工面积稳中有增,将对应后期“金九银十”的旺季需求。因此,旺季预期犹存。

   总结来看,供应端,2019年年内新增产能投放偏少,长期停车装置增多,春季检修损失高于往年,整体供应压力较为有限。需求端,虽然国内宏观经济受贸易摩擦影响增速有所放缓,但房地产开工上半年维持增长态势,“金九银十”旺季需求预期犹存。在供需影响下,三季度PVC有望再创新高。

                                       (作者单位:招金期货)


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