菜油 偏强走势难以改变
作者:赵克山  2019/8/13 21:05:56  来源:原创  浏览:340

   随着菜油消费旺季逐渐临近,以及中美贸易摩擦升级消息刺激,8月初以来,菜油期价大幅上涨,主力合约刷新近2年半以来高点。展望后市,美农月度报告再传利多,国内油脂油料供应偏紧,菜油期货或将继续维持偏强走势。

   美农报告再传利多

   周一晚,美国农业部如期公布了本月农产品月度供需报告,其中公布的关于美豆的数字让市场分析人士大跌眼镜,报告预计今年美豆播种面积为7670万英亩,低于之前市场预估的8100万英亩的平均水平,也大幅低于美国农业部6月30日预估的8000万英亩,比去年实际播种的8920万英亩减少1250万英亩,降幅达14%。2019/2020年度美豆总产量为36.8亿蒲式耳,同比下降19%,为2013年以来最低水平。2019/2020年度期末库存为7.55亿蒲式耳,同比下降近30%。本报告使得今年美豆供需形势由过度宽松转向偏紧。

   另外,目前美豆正处于关键生长期,后期天气炒作行情较易出现。据监测,截至8月11日当周,美豆生长优良率仅54%,大幅低于去年同期66%的水平。由于播种延迟,今年美豆还面临着早霜的威胁。种种迹象表明,后期美豆期货易涨难跌,将给予菜油期货利多指引。

   菜油库存水平偏低

   近几个月来,我国菜籽、菜油进口量持续处于偏低水平,这使得目前油厂菜油库存偏低,菜油供应略显紧张。据监测,下半年以来我国菜籽到港量将出现断崖式下降。根据船期统计,7—10月菜籽到港量分别为6.5万吨、7万吨、2万吨、4万吨,大大低于上半年10万—30万吨/月的正常水平。随着压榨不断进行,港口油厂菜籽库存也在不断降低。截至8月9日,沿海地区油厂菜籽库存为33.8万吨,周环比增加0.3万吨,但较去年同期的63.8万吨下降47.02%,为今年以来最低水平,也是历年同期最低水平。

   虽然上周油厂菜籽压榨开工率上升,但由于下游提货较为积极,沿海油厂菜油库存出现明显下滑,油厂更有信心提高菜油出厂报价。截至8月9日当周,纳入调查的101家油厂菜籽压榨量为6.746万吨,周环比增加0.215万吨,增幅为3.29%。但即便如此,油厂菜油库存还是出现不同程度下降。截至8月9日,华南地区(两广、福建)油厂菜油库存为8.45万吨,周环比减少0.75万吨,降幅8.15%,较去年同期的13.02万吨下降35.1%,为历年来同期最低水平。华东地区(安徽、江苏、上海)油厂菜油库存为38.76万吨,周环比下降2.43万吨,降幅5.9%。

   菜油需求不断转好

   立秋过后,气温不断下降,中秋、国庆等节日接踵而至,大中专院校集中开学,油脂消费量趋于增加,油脂将进入传统消费旺季。据监测,7月沿海油厂菜油成交量2.07万吨,月环比增加0.85万吨,增幅为69.67%。

   另外,由于期现货价格上涨,政府本周一进行的临储菜油拍卖成交极为火爆。计划抛售1.9996万吨,全部成交,成交均价6314元/吨,远高于6月中下旬抛售时的成交均价。

   综上所述,美国农业部大幅调低美豆播种面积,一旦出现天气问题,美豆供应将转紧。由于进口菜籽和菜油减少,国内菜油供应低于往年同期,而随着需求旺季临近,供应转紧亦是大概率事件。后期菜油期货偏强走势很难改变。

                                      (作者单位:金期投资)


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