棉花 多重利好待发酵
作者:付斌  2019/8/13 21:06:51  来源:原创  浏览:451

   中美贸易争端对棉花市场的利空影响接近尾声,从绝对价格、基金偏好、种植成本、工业库存和轮储政策几方面来看,棉价被低估,矫枉过正的同时也在积蓄潜在利多。


   在中美贸易争端不断升级的大背景下,需求萎缩逻辑取代传统供给逻辑成为驱动棉价下跌的核心因素,郑棉指数自2018年6月以来跌幅约34%,达到郑棉大熊市平均34%的跌幅。当下棉价已大幅跌破种植成本,绝对价格接近历史低位,利空绝大部分释放,长期来看,棉价被低估,正处于“阴尽而阳将生”时期。

   绝大部分利空已释放

   美国是最大的棉花出口国,中国是最大的纺织服装出口国,二者互为出口重要目的地,因此,中美贸易争端是研判棉花市场无法回避的核心因素。当前,贸易争端对棉花市场的最新影响有三点:一是对500亿和2000亿美元输美商品已征的25%关税没有取消,影响约17%对美纺织品服装出口;二是自9月1日起,拟对3000亿美元输美商品征收10%关税,影响剩余大部分对美纺织品服装出口,美国冬季订单堪忧;三是美棉进口仍加征25%惩罚性关税,中方已暂停采购美国农产品。至此,贸易争端的加税威胁已包括所有对美纺织服装出口,极限测算如果完全失去美国市场,国内棉花消费会下降80万—100万吨,其对棉花市场的利空已近尾声。不过,对3000亿美元输美商品的加税可能会从10%调高到25%。棉价有可能借此完成熊市最后一跌,也有可能表现为对利空的钝化而见底。

   据调研,棉纺行业接近自由竞争,平均毛利率在10%—15%,平均净利率在4%—6%,行业抵抗系统风险能力较弱,订单变动会对企业经营产生较大影响;棉花—棉纱—棉布—印染—服装的产业链条很长,各环节的一致行动会在原料采购端形成放大效应,表现为非常强烈的主动补库和被动去库特征。一旦贸易争端逻辑被市场认知,就会掺杂情绪预期放大效应,市场会对可预见的最坏情况进行交易,而不仅仅拘泥于当下实际消费量的下降,所以预期交易的悲观程度远远领先于事实,不能更坏就是利好。笔者认为,贸易争端对棉花市场的利空已近尾声,市场已对最坏情况进行了较为充分的定价。

   矫枉过正埋下潜在利多

   从绝对价格、基金偏好、种植成本、工业库存和轮储政策几方面来看,棉价或被低估,矫枉过正的同时也在积蓄潜在利多。除了在2008年金融危机和2016年巨量抛储见过约10000元/吨的极值外,郑棉指数大部分时间都在约12000元/吨以上运行。当前郑棉指数接近历史极值,大概等同于2004年棉花上市时的低点,近15年累计49%的通胀和7倍的货币增幅似乎没有在棉花上留下踪影。自2018年6月开始,基金跟随贸易争端形势增持美棉空头,目前基金净空占比为13.4%,为2006年6月以来最高水平,而一旦预期好转极易引发空头踩踏。

   成本方面,国际棉价完全种植成本在66—69美分/磅,国内疆棉种植成本在13000—15000元/吨,国内外棉价均已跌破种植成本,部分国家虽有补贴亦不是长久之计。有关数据显示,8月初棉花工业库存29.5天,同比减少8.1天;纱库存29.1天,同比增加12.2天;布库存51天,同比增加13.1天。棉花工业库存压力不大,若后市预期好转,补库行情仍可期,但纱和布库存压力仍在,这一驱动力会打折。据了解,在9—12月国家可能会同时轮入疆棉和外棉补充国储库存,实现全年净投放为零的目标,这对于增加外棉出口、缓解新花上市和商业库存压力也有帮助。

   综上所述,中美贸易争端对棉花市场的利空影响接近尾声,市场已对最坏情况进行了较为充分的定价;从绝对价格、基金偏好、种植成本、工业库存和轮储政策几方面来看,棉价被低估,矫枉过正的同时也在积蓄潜在利多。

                                      (作者单位:中粮期货)


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