PVC 阶段性反弹可期
作者:黄李强  2019/8/13 21:09:10  来源:原创  浏览:307

   近期,国内安全检查升级,PVC供应将受到影响,价格或延续反弹走势。

   供应隐患支撑上涨

   上游方面,目前电石装置开工率呈现上升态势,生产企业的整体库存也有所增加。为了加快出货,部分电石厂开始下调价格。但是,受义马爆炸事件影响,国内安全检查升级,电石运输受到了一定影响,河南地区压车现象严重,造成电石结构性供应不足。加之西北部分地区持续限电,一些电石厂生产受到影响。因此,虽然目前电石整体供应充裕,但在运输瓶颈和限电的影响下,PVC生产企业拿货不畅,电石法生产企业生产成本上升。

   利润方面,目前国内电石法PVC生产企业平均成本为6359元/吨,毛利润441元/吨;乙烯法PVC生产企业平均成本为6430.48元/吨,毛利润319.52元/吨。由于企业利润维持在正常水平,因此近期国内PVC生产企业开工负荷呈现增加态势,市场供应相对充足。8月,PVC生产企业检修计划密集,涉及产能达到297万吨,国内供应量会有所下降。此外,由于环保压力较大,后期PVC企业的生产存在较大的不确定性,开工或受到影响。

   需求低迷制约涨幅

   库存方面,近期PVC库存呈现持续下降态势,但整体仍然位于高位。截至8月9日,国内PVC社会库存458573吨,较去年同期上升126773吨,涨幅为38.21%。偏高的库存使得今年PVC价格重心明显低于去年。目前,PVC市场虽然进入去库存阶段,但与合理水平仍相距甚远,这导致下游企业备货意愿不强。

   需求方面,由于库存偏高,目前下游企业购货意愿不强,受中美贸易摩擦和安全环保巡查的影响,终端市场的订单量有限,管材、型材、板材企业的开工均不理想。虽然?“金九银十“旺季越来越近,但在种种利空影响下,下游需求或呈现旺季不旺现象。

   进出口方面,6月PVC纯粉进口量为6.28万吨,较上月环比增长2.95%;PVC纯粉出口量为3.64万吨,较上月环比增长30%。由于国外需求较好,6月PVC出口量上升,减少了国内市场的供应,支撑价格上行。不过,印度等国进入季风季节,市场需求下降,国内出口量上升的态势或难以延续。

   综上所述,目前PVC价格下有成本支撑,上有高库存压制,难以出现趋势性行情。但是,后期的安全环保巡查将趋严,PVC供应势必受到一定影响。因此,受供应结构性、阶段性不足的影响,近期PVC价格反弹或延续,操作上逢低买入为主。

                                      (作者单位:金石期货)


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