沪铝 窄幅振荡为主
作者:张若溪 黄笑凡  2019/8/14 21:25:25  来源:原创  浏览:323

   最强台风“利奇马”过境山东,从8月10日起山东大部分地区迎来强降水,临沂、潍坊、滨州、淄博等部分地区出现较严重的内涝。山东省电解铝产能占比全国近25%,台风过境可能对铝价有一定影响。据SMM消息,山东当地电解铝企业电解槽运转正常,但铝水运输受阻。而从期货盘面看,台风对铝价的影响不大。

   氧化铝已接近现金成本

   据测算,在目前需求情况下,海外氧化铝现金成本为300—330美元/吨。根据SMM披露,澳洲氧化铝FOB价为299美元/吨,下跌空间不大。国内氧化铝维持在2400元/吨一线,接近行业平均现金成本。国内氧化铝厂限产动作开始出现。未来氧化铝价格或保持低弹性,对铝价和产业利润分配的影响大为减轻。

   电解铝利润偏高但库存支撑较强

   目前电解铝利润处在今年以来的较好水平,山东和新疆已超过1000元/吨,但利润主要来自氧化铝端的让渡而非电解铝价格上涨,下游需求有一定支撑。从库存来看,今年年初LME库存为127万吨,而截至8月12日,库存为991525吨,减少22%,环比8月9日库存998250吨下降6725吨。今年年初上期所库存为67.2万吨,截至2019年8月12日上期所库存为391467吨,减少41%,环比8月9日库存403660吨下降12193吨。LME和上期所均处在去库存的大趋势中。今年以来,上期所铝库存去化速度明显快于LME,主要原因可能是房屋进入竣工阶段,铝合金门窗需求主要集中在房地产后周期,而建筑需求占比我国铝总需求近1/3。

   汽车行业有见底迹象

   中国汽车工业协8月12日公布的数据显示,7月中国乘用车销量153万辆,同比下降3.9%。1—7月乘用车产销分别完成1150.1万辆和1165.4万辆,产销量同比分别下降15.3%和12.8%。销量降幅比1—6月继续收窄。从二手车交易额累计同比数据来看,今年增速维持在3%以上,且进入下半年有持续好转迹象,说明消费需求仍在,只是对价格敏感。随着减税降费的持续进行,汽车消费或从低价车型开始修复。

   同时,宏观数据略显滞胀。中国7月M2同比增8.1%,预期8.4%,前值8.5%。7月人民币贷款增加1.06万亿元,预期1.27万亿元,前值1.66万亿元,同比少增3975亿元。7月社会融资规模增量为1.01万亿元,比上年同期少2103亿元。

   地方政府专项债占社融比例创出历史新高,总量仍在匀速增长中。新增贷款累计同比为13.66%,仍在今年以来的下降区间中。随着猪价和果蔬价格上涨,CPI仍有上升势头,经济有滞胀特征。后期或许有更多财政和货币政策出台。

   综上所述,目前电解铝开工率和利润水平保持在偏高水平,未来如果需求不振或产能增加,则铝价有下跌空间,电解铝行业可能让渡利润。在氧化铝价格波动平稳的前提下,主要矛盾变为库存去化速度和新增产能的博弈。三季度电解铝新增产能有限,需求保持惯性的可能性较大,料铝价窄幅振荡。中期需观察汽车行业能否见底回升。建议根据内外盘去化速度和以及产能变化情况采取相应策略。

                                      (作者单位:前海期货)


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