境外专家:贸易摩擦对大宗商品影响趋于分化
作者:  2019/8/15 20:45:13  来源:原创  浏览:1890

   本报讯(记者 邬梦雯)近日,第三届摩根大通商品研究中心(JPMCC)国际研讨会在科罗拉多大学丹佛分校商学院举行,会议涵盖了农产品、能源产品、矿产品等各类大宗商品市场基本面分析、商品衍生品市场交易及大宗商品市场风险管理、大宗商品在宏观经济和国际贸易中的重要作用等多个议题,会议由摩根大通商品研究中心研究主任杨坚主持。

   曾在特朗普政府任职的前美国白宫经济顾问委员会首席国际经济学家Timothy Fitzgerald在演讲中表示,从2018年年初开始,美国政府改变了沿用70年的国际经济政策做法,实施单边进口税,同时也引发其他国家对美国产品的类似报复性关税。“单边进口税这一做法本身是着眼短期效果,但目前看来可能有较长期使用的趋势。这是因为在现有的国际贸易框架下,美国的谈判杠杆是很有限的,所以特朗普政府采取了破坏性的方法。”Timothy Fitzgerald表示,虽然贸易摩擦具体涉及的规模相对较小,但是累积效应是巨大的,这将和一个国家的宏观经济表现联系密切,对于美国也是如此。

   芝商所集团董事总经理兼首席经济学家Bluford Putnam在会上表示,贸易摩擦对大宗商品市场的影响机制和表现,会因商品种类的不同而有所不同。在他看来,在贸易摩擦的背景下,黄金市场价格变动主要是更加直接地针对美国联邦基准利率的预期变化作出反应,与贸易摩擦等不确定性因素并不是直接相关,在贸易摩擦影响美国经济增长,进而最终影响到美国联邦基准利率的调整时才起作用。

   处于贸易摩擦旋涡中心的另一商品是铜。Bluford Putnam在会上表示,铜仍然可以作为评估贸易摩擦时期全球增长预期的可靠指标。“只有结束贸易摩擦并改善全球增长预期,铜的价格才能反弹。同样,正是因为贸易摩擦,铜和黄金的价格变动几乎不可能同步。贸易摩擦的起起伏伏很可能会通过影响全球经济增长预期和美国利率预期的复杂变化,进而推动它们走向相反的方向。”他说。

   此外,贸易摩擦对石油市场的影响与上述大宗商品又有所不同。据期货日报记者了解,目前国际石油市场的两大推动力是美国石油供给和全球石油需求。贸易摩擦的起起落落会反映在全球石油需求预期当中,并与在美国石油产量增长共同作用影响市场。

   据悉,2012年成立的JPMCC是美国第一个也是目前为止唯一一个大宗商品综合研究中心。每年在美国丹佛举办的JPMCC国际研讨会已经成为学术和业界共襄盛举的大宗商品领域国际性主要会议。“今年7月,摩根大通商品研究中心还与同济大学及世界银行合作,在上海共同举办了同济大学衍生品市场与风险管理国际会议。这是我们首次在美国之外参与主办国际性会议,是为了实践‘请进来’与‘走出去’,以更好实现中心全面服务大宗商品领域国际同行的宗旨。”杨坚说。


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