保罗·罗默9月2日郑州谈世界经济
作者:邬梦雯  2019/8/15 21:11:34  来源:原创  浏览:3478

   自中国(郑州)国际期货论坛2016年举办开始,每届论坛都会特别邀请一位国际金融领域的大腕,与大家分享对当下世界经济形势或衍生品市场趋势的看法和思考。

   据期货日报记者了解,2019中国(郑州)国际期货论坛上,2018年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者、内生增长理论领军人物、纽约大学斯特恩商学院经济学教授保罗·罗默将在9月2日上午的主论坛上作“世界经济形势分析与增长前景”主题演讲。在当今逆全球化暗流涌动、贸易保护主义抬头、地缘政治冲突升级的背景下,保罗·罗默从自己学术研究的角度出发,对全球经济形势作出的分析和展望,将给国内市场带来更多启示。

   据了解,在保罗·罗默提出内生增长理论之前,主流经济学家习惯强调知识、技术或创新是经济增长的主要源泉,并通常假定技术进步是外生给定的,把经济增长的动力装进了“黑箱”,而保罗·罗默对新古典经济增长理论的反思和重构,打开了这个“黑箱”。

   1986年,保罗·罗默建立了内生经济增长模型,把知识完整纳入到经济和技术体系之内,使其作为经济增长的内生变量。他提出的四要素增长理论,即除新古典经济学中的资本和劳动(非技术劳动)外,又加上了人力资本和新思想(用专利来衡量)。之后,经济学家开始将政府政策、人口、人力资本等作为内生变量引入经济增长模型。

   2018年,保罗·罗默因“将技术创新融入长期宏观经济分析”获得诺贝尔经济学奖。

   2016年10月至2018年1月,保罗·罗默曾任世界银行首席经济学家和高级副总裁。之后,他回到纽约大学斯特恩商学院担任经济学教授。在此之前,保罗·罗默还曾是芝加哥大学、加州大学伯克利分校、斯坦福大学商学院和罗切斯特大学的经济学教授,斯坦福国际发展中心等多个研究中心的高级研究员,专注于全球金融政治方面的研究。

   当前,世界经济“阴云密布”,特别是贸易保护主义抬头,贸易冲突加剧令全球金融市场波动频率和幅度加大。“技术和贸易的进步仍会继续,不过未来几十年不会像以前那样全球化了。”保罗·罗默日前在中国出席活动时公开表示,“正是全球化的福利没有被美国所有人均等共享,才出现了反全球化浪潮,美国的很多问题需要靠内部政策解决,而不是靠所谓的‘贸易战’。”

   在保罗·罗默看来,中国在金融开放和人民币国际化方面有两个非常大的机遇:一是发展一个更好的、基于股权的融资系统;二是可以通过“一带一路”建设做大规模的基建或城市设计。

   此外,保罗·罗默认为,在当今科技发展迅猛的背景下,高科技巨头“垄断”行为的弊端已在全球贸易摩擦中显现。他认为,垄断会使世界经济变得更脆弱,在反垄断方面,经济学家和政府监管部门还有很多可以努力的空间。

   据中国(郑州)国际期货论坛组委会负责人介绍,与保罗·罗默一起来参加2019中国(郑州)国际期货论坛的,除芝商所等境外交易所代表外,还有瑞银集团、麦格里集团、路易达孚、澳帝桦商贸、玛氏食品、GSI、英国石油、伍德麦肯兹等境外知名机构和企业的代表。


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