投资界大咖齐聚郑州把脉商品投资
作者:吕双梅  2019/8/22 21:28:12  来源:原创  浏览:4930

  中国(郑州)国际期货论坛的这场“投资盛宴”不可错过



在经历了上半年的宽幅振荡后,大宗商品市场年内会否迎来趋势行情,投资机会在哪、如何把握,专业投资机构的商品投资逻辑和策略有什么变化?9月1日下午举行的2019中国(郑州)国际期货论坛预热论坛——期货投资机构论坛将给你一个答案。

据期货日报记者了解,在去年的中国(郑州)国际期货论坛上,同样是期货投资机构论坛,吸引了众多投资者和市场人士的关注,偌大的会场座无虚席,就连会场两侧、后排都挤满了前来听讲的人。

今年以来,国际经济金融形势日趋复杂多变,贸易保护主义愈演愈烈,地缘政治冲突不断升级,全球经济增长充满不确定性,这些因素加剧了原油、黄金、铜等大宗商品价格的波动。不少期货投资者反映,当前大宗商品市场看似机会不少,实则很难把握。特别是在商品期货市场投资者机构化的趋势下,普通投资者机会把握难度更大,希望能多了解一些专业机构的投研理念和投资策略。

记者从中国(郑州)国际期货论坛组委会了解到,今年的期货投资机构论坛将邀请业内知名投资机构大咖,围绕大宗商品资产投资机会,大宗商品投研理念和市场建设,当前大宗商品投资逻辑及策略,以及郑商所品种投资机会等热点话题展开讨论。届时,来自熵一投资、永安国富、鹏扬基金、元葵资产、敦和实业、凯丰投资等机构的专业人士将在论坛上分享他们在商品投资上的最新观点和看法,为大家带来一场“投资盛宴”。

关于大宗商品投资,多位投资机构人士向记者谈了他们的看法。

在广州市草本投资管理有限公司基金经理刘智勇看来,今年大宗商品价格波动加大,主要有两方面原因:一是国内外宏观经济环境复杂多变,短期市场情绪干扰严重;二是投资者结构在发生变化,机构投资者和量化交易参与的比例不断增加,使得市场价格表现出锯齿特征。

“近年来,随着商品期货市场的不断成熟,机构投资者逐步成为市场主要参与力量。”浙江一家投资公司负责人说,从公开数据看,截至2018年年底,机构投资者持仓量占比50%以上,这说明商品期货市场开始进入机构投资者时代。在机构投资者时代,商品期货市场可能会出现几个趋势变化:一是定价模式和投资策略升级;二是市场监管规则进一步优化;三是投资者机构化进一步强化;四是涌现一批优秀的机构管理人。

据了解,上述浙江投资公司在大宗商品研究上更多侧重于产业基本面研究,分析供给端和需求端的影响因素,尤其关注供给端的变化所蕴含的市场机会。

“从供给端看,有色金属板块的供应增速较低,而石油化工产业的产能保持高增速,板块间的对冲机会相对比较明确。从需求端看,黑色系商品价格在房地产投资逐步下行的过程中面临较大压力。此外,随着美联储进入降息周期,这一轮美元的大周期接近尾声,贵金属价格会获得更多上行动力。”前述浙江投资公司负责人说,“但从大类资产配置的角度讲,我们最看好股票市场的投资机会。当前市场的估值处于历史较低水平,未来随着上市公司整体盈利见底回升,将带动市场步入上行轨道。另外,在全球进入降息周期的背景下,债券市场仍具备一定的投资机会,国债收益率有向2016年的低点靠拢的趋势。”

另一家投资机构则对贵金属上涨持谨慎态度。在该机构负责人看来,原油走弱是大概率事件。“投资者应加强风控,合理控制仓位,关注安全边际较高的策略,在‘活下去’的基础上寻求机会。”该负责人告诉记者,未来他们会多关注受宏观因素影响较小的商品的机会,比如苹果、红枣、鸡蛋等品种。在宏观环境剧烈变化的情况下,上述品种的投资逻辑可能会更清晰。

“在宏观经济形势多变的背景下,与宏观经济关联较大的工业品价格短期走势仍存较大不确定性。近期我在关注独立性相对较强的黑色系成材和油脂油料商品的市场机会。”刘智勇说,今年的期货投资机构论坛聚焦大宗商品投资机会和投资行业发展趋势,不仅会给普通投资者的商品投资提供参考和建议,还将促进投资机构间的交流碰撞,推动商品期货市场机构投资者健康成长。


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