谢东海:通胀预期降温 大宗商品承压
作者:孙慧平  2019/9/2 1:47:18  来源:原创  浏览:568

在2019中国(郑州)国际期货论坛上,熵一资本董事长兼首席投资官谢东海表示,全球货币开始普遍宽松,这是基于全球经济不佳产生的,所以阶段内大宗商品价格仍旧扑朔迷离。

“唯一一个保持加息的美联储现在也开始降息了。”谢东海说,货币宽松向来是大宗商品价格变动的背景。

众所周知,次贷危机之后,主要经济体货币宽松政策带来了2009年到2011年这一轮通货膨胀。2011年到2015年,实际上也是货币宽松期,但通胀持续下行。

由此看来,宽松货币政策并不必然导致通货膨胀。那么,在什么样的背景下,宽松货币政策可以让通货膨胀上升呢?

“关键在于要有广义的货币扩张,所有可以作为支付能力的东西,我们都把它看成货币。比如说信用,一个信用周期其实就是广义货币的数量上的扩张期和收缩期。如果仅仅是央行货币供给增加,但其他的参与各方没有增加这样的信用,不一定就能够带来通货膨胀。”谢东海表示。

目前,政府在基建上的支出没有比较大的增长,美国政府的支出和财政补贴,也没有带来居民可支配收入的同步上扬,补贴多但是收入并没有特别大的增长。

从企业的投资来看,国内制造业的固定资产投资的增速还是维持在相当低的水准。“最主要的还在于可能我们会需要更多的降低企业经营成本的这样一些支持。”谢东海表示,美国减税之后有过短暂的企业资本支出的增加,但很快后继无力。

从另一层面来说,美国制造业其实跟全球同步,但服务业还是保持相对的稳定。这种结构就决定了美国的需求对全球大宗商品的影响比较小,而中国对全球大宗商品的影响是越来越大。

谢东海认为,从近期的通货膨胀的变化看,有效需求从政府到企业再到居民,增速都是在下降中,那么反映出来的就是通胀在下行。

现在,各国的央行之所以能够采取宽松的货币政策,正是因为通胀迟迟不起,降息不再是个案,各国的央行都在努力降息。

大宗商品比如有代表性的原油或者铜走软,整个工业品价格也有这种乏力的迹象。而市场的通胀预期还是在持续下行,不管是国内还是国外的,通胀预期一直在下行中。

在这个背景下,今年年底很难看到通胀调头向上。但是,如果各国都用更宽松的货币政策,再加上财政政策,会不会在将来导致通胀的一些变化,这可能需要未来依据新增因素去进行观察。

“就目前情况来看,是一个温和的通胀,我们也看不到很快走向通缩的迹象。”谢东海最后表示,大宗商品价格尤其是工业品,目前整体上还是会受压,但是最终还是要看商品本身的供需之间的关系。


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