肖国平:商品收益来自基差、杠杆等
作者:郑泉  2019/9/2 1:48:46  来源:原创  浏览:593

在2019中国(郑州)国际期货论坛“期货投资机构”预热论坛上,永安国富资产管理有限公司董事长肖国平表示,投资期货的收益来源有三个,包括基差收益、价格变化和杠杆收益。

“商品期货市场看起来像是实体经济的衍生品,但实际上现在商品期货市场上的品种那么多,基本已经覆盖大部分的大宗商品了。”肖国平认为,期货市场可以看成是虚拟工厂和物流集散中心。肖国平表示,一个正向的市场应该给出仓储和利息,反向市场就是给出现货的持有收益,这就是大宗商品的基差收益。此外还有价格的变化,推动商品价格长期上涨的因素在于通胀,而推动价格下跌的理由则是科技的进步。从长期来看,商品的收益来自基差收益、杠杆收益。

“目前期货市场的发展已经取得了巨大的成就,整个市场规模越来越大,机构投资者的比例越来越高。”他说,“从这个市场的博弈来讲,要大力发展套期保值,同时要大力发展市场的流动性,有足够多的实体经济参与,这样的市场才是丰富和均衡的市场。”

对于期货市场的发展建设,肖国平认为,目前的基础理论研究不足,关于商品如何定价方面的研究文献大部分都是国外学者贡献的,国内做深入研究者少。他表示,期货市场国际化不单需要引进来,也需要走出去。“引进来实现了部分国际化,另一方面也要让国内企业走出去,很多经营国外定价品种的央企或者大型现货企业都在从事境外期货业务,但是国内机构投资者,受制于资金、制度等限制,真正能做这方面业务的比较少。”肖国平说,目前国内一些品种的市场有效性不足,需要进一步优化和完善相关制度。

肖国平还表示,期货市场的法律还有待完善。目前,我国期货市场已经形成了以国务院颁布的《期货交易管理条例》等行政法规为核心,证监会发布的《期货交易所管理办法》等部门规章和规范性文件为主体,期货交易所、中国期货业协会制定的自律管理规则等为重要组成部分的制度规范体系。但是,期货市场还没有一部专门的法律。


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