期指 警惕获利了结压力
作者:何慧  2019/9/10 20:55:09  来源:原创  浏览:461

   8月中旬以来,随着国内逆周期调节政策不断发力,央行超预期降准打开流动性空间,杠杆资金和外资持续流入,A股出现了一波明显的反弹走势。IF、IH、IC加权指数自8月6日触底以来,反弹幅度分别为9.44%、8.07%、13.44%,持续时间已有一个月有余。目前IF运行至4000关口压力附近,IH运行至前高3000附近,技术上有振荡整固需求,IC本轮反弹相对偏强,但距离4月高点仍有较大空间。从本轮反弹的时间、空间、关键点位三个维度来看,短期警惕获利回吐压力,考虑到中秋、国庆陆续来临,建议多单止盈离场为主。

   从经济基本面来看,最新公布的8月官方PMI和财新PMI出现明显背离,官方制造业PMI降至49.5,在荣枯线之下运行,并创2014年以来同期新低;财新制造业PMI为50.4,创4月以来最高,高于预期和前值。二者背离的原因主要在于它们的调查范围不同,国家统计局的样本调查范围较大,涵盖了约3000家企业,以大中型企业为主,而财新PMI只涵盖了400家企业,中小企业占比更多。由此说明中小企业的景气度相对于大中型企业有所回暖,但是其对于经济总量的拉动力量却是有限的。

   周二公布的通胀数据显示,8月CPI同比2.8%,预期2.6%,前值2.8%;PPI同比-0.8%,预期-0.9%,前值-0.3%;猪肉价格同比上涨46.7%,影响CPI上涨约1.08个百分点。工业出厂价格与居民消费价格二者之间的剪刀差持续扩大,PPI-CPI从2017年2月的7.0下滑至目前的-3.6,一方面CPI通胀上行或将限制央行降息的意愿和空间,另一方面PPI持续下滑仍显示以工业为主的国内经济需求较弱,或将对企业利润的持续回升形成拖累。总而言之,经济数据的分化与背离短期难以成为A股进一步上涨的推动力量。

   虽然外部环境、内部增长转型等压力仍然存在,但改革措施、政策催化给市场带来的活力更加显著,结构性行情正逐步拓展。9月4日,国常会提出三个核心政策,提前下达明年专项债部分新增额度,加快落实降低实际利率水平的措施,及时运用普遍降准和定向降准等政策工具;9月5日,金稳委会议强调要加大逆周期调节力度;9月6日,央行宣布“全面+定向”降准,共释放长期资金约9000亿元;9月9日,中央全面深化改革委员会第十次会议审议通过了《统筹监管金融基础设施工作方案》《国有金融资本出资人职责暂行规定》等多份文件。政策从稳增长、宽货币、强改革等多方面协同发力,尤其是对科技股的支持力度,使得科技股的估值显著回升,这也为A股风险偏好回升提供了支撑。

   杠杆资金和外资持续流入,是推动A股上涨的直接因素。自8月19日两融标的扩容至今,沪深两市融资余额从8930.3亿元增至9427.8亿元,规模增加497.5亿元。上周北上资金合计净买入280.08亿元,连续4周净买入,为历史第2大单周净买入。9月7日,标普道琼斯指数公司宣布将1099家中国A股上市公司纳入标普新兴市场指数BMI,其中147家大盘股,251家中盘股,701家小盘股。9月23日开盘前,富时罗素、标普道琼斯纳入A股名单都将生效,两大外资将共同为A股注入活水。外资进入A股的趋势不改,显示外资对中国资本市场具有坚定的信心。

   后期以下几个因素值得投资者引起关注:一是随着A股行情渐暖,减持风潮逐渐兴起,进入三季度以来,A股市场已有474家上市公司发布了拟减持公告;二是9月季末考核、财政收税、长假前取现等仍可能给流动性供求造成一定程度影响;三是9月美欧日三大央行的议息会议结果以及英国无协议脱欧等不确定性和预期差对市场情绪带来的影响。

                                      (作者单位:中辉期货)


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