股指面临方向选择
作者:陈畅  2019/9/15 20:18:23  来源:原创  浏览:474

   进入事件密集期




在经过8月初至今的上涨后,当前上证指数来到了7月初市场阶段性高点的位置,能否放量突破成为关键。本周A股进入事件窗口期,如果MLF降息或是LPR报价利率下降,将有利于IC与IH比价进一步扩大;反之,9月最后一周可能成为投资者普遍“落袋”的时间窗口。

政策托底预期推动A股走出独立行情

自8月6日以来,虽然外部环境反复无常,但A股却波澜不惊,持续创出反弹新高。对比A股、港股和美股主要指数的走势可以发现,上证指数涨幅远超过恒生指数和标普500指数,A股独立性行情特征比较明显。

从指数结构上来看,在本轮上涨中投资者更青睐于受经济增速影响较小的行业,科技股因此表现突出。其背后逻辑在于,相对于宏观的不确定性,市场更加关注受宏观影响小的结构性机会,反映到行情上,即表现为自下而上的“轻宏观、重个股”,期指方面则体现为8月14日至今IC与IH比价持续扩大。上周市场涨势较前期放缓,“八二分化”格局延续。截至上周四收盘,期指三品种当月合约的周涨跌幅从高到低依次分别为IC1909(2.12%)、IH1909(0.87%)、IF1909(0.86%)。

政策托底预期所带来的乐观情绪不仅推动了市场的反弹,也使得期指的贴水状况得以改善。截至上周四收盘,IF四合约基差全部转正,IH四合约基差贴近平水,IC四合约基差也回升至7月底以来的相对高位,目前的基差有利于远月合约空头套期保值仓位的建仓,尤其是IF、IH合约。

事件窗口期能否引爆行情成关键

本周A股进入事件密集期,以下三点需要投资者重点关注:

一是中美贸易谈判。9月以来,中美贸易谈判暖风频吹,无疑对市场风险偏好的回升起到助推作用。10月初,第十三轮中美经贸高级别磋商将在华盛顿举行。建议投资者持续关注中美贸易谈判进展。

二是MLF是否续作。9月12日晚间,欧洲央行宣布降息并重启QE。9月19日凌晨,美联储将公布9月议息会议决议,目前市场普遍预期美联储将再次降息。国内方面,9月17日有2650亿MLF到期,9月20日LPR报价将发布。在海外“鸽声”嘹亮的背景下,本次MLF是否续作成为投资者关注的焦点。如果MLF没有降息,将对市场情绪构成负面影响。而如果MLF降息或者LPR报价利率下降,将有利于宽信用逻辑的进一步发酵,并继续推升当前的成长股行情,届时IC与IH比价有望进一步扩大。

三是北上资金动向。9月23日盘前,标普道琼斯纳入A股生效,富时罗素A股扩容生效。上述举措预计带来51亿美元被动型资金,约合360亿元人民币。据此推断,被动型资金大举建仓应该在9月20日。历史规律显示,每次A股国际化深入的当天,北上资金都会呈现大幅净流入。目前北上资金已经连续4周呈现大幅净流入,虽然背后有A股国际化深入的驱动,但仅以此判断外资的大幅流入略显单薄。据了解,除被动配置外,主动性资金流入更多是预期中美贸易谈判向好下A股上涨叠加汇率升值会带来股票收益和汇率收益。后续投资者需要关注在利好兑现的前提下,上述主动性资金何时止盈离场及该举动对A股可能造成的影响。

后市来看,建议投资者观察是否出现进一步催化因素,以及市场在催化作用下能否放量突破技术关口。如果放量突破,则行情会进一步引爆,届时期指三品种继续布局多单并可进行多IC、空IH跨品种套利;反之,市场大概率将重回振荡,届时可将前期多单止盈并反手布局空单。

                                   (作者单位:一德期货)


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