乙二醇高位下行概率较大
作者:  2019/9/19 21:09:45  来源:原创  浏览:1019

上周末,沙特国内的一处原油处理装置及油田受到无人机的袭击,当时造成其国内日均570万桶产量的中断,这也直接导致布伦特原油价格暴涨近12%,创出自1991年海湾战争以来的单日最高涨幅。原油的暴涨直接带动国内化工品种的上涨,MEG主力2001合约连续两个交易日触及涨停板,然而,随着沙特宣称本月底之前将恢复所有产能之后,油价快速回吐此前近一半的涨幅,这直接促使MEG价格高位回落。因此,我们认为,随着原油风波过后,乙二醇将回归基本面。首先,现阶段乙二醇生产企业已经回归盈利状态。其次,开工率将在国庆假期后稳步提升,且国内外多套新装置将在四季度陆续投产。最后,下游聚酯需求将进入淡季。因此,MEG高位逐步下行的概率较大。

操作建议:单边做空主力2001合约

乙二醇企业已回归盈利  后期竞争加剧

在大扩产的背景下,特别是国内炼化一体化装置的集中投产,国内乙二醇市场的竞争将明显加剧,这就导致生产企业面临较长时间的亏损局面,进而才能淘汰部分落后产能,实现市场的充分竞争。自今年3月底以来,石脑油制MEG的现金流长时间处于负值,从而导致此后国内外MEG生产企业开工率的下滑,国内华东港口库存的不断减少。然而,随着近期乙二醇内外盘价格的大幅上涨,不论是石脑油制MEG还是乙烯外采制MEG均开始盈利,这势必会引起后期各工艺之间竞争的重新加剧。

乙二醇开工率将逐步提升  新装置陆续投产

在持续亏损的情况下,国内乙二醇生产企业的开工率自3月底以来逐步下降,煤制乙二醇的开工负荷一度跌至50%以下,但随着盈利情况的明显好转,根据目前乙二醇的现货价格测算,煤制乙二醇企业已经开始盈利。近期已有多套装置公布了重启或提负荷的计划,如新杭能源30万吨/年,河南能源(永城)20万吨/年以及阳煤平定20万吨/年的装置。另外,国庆后新疆天盈,河南能源(安阳),河南能源(新乡)仍存开车计划,以上复产装置可提供8万—10万吨/月的额外供应产出,目前国内乙二醇企业的开工率已经见底回升。除现有装置重启之外,新装置投产进程也在逐步推进,MEGlobal在美国德州的75万吨装置计划在11月投产,其主要销往的目的地为中国。浙江石化一期75万吨、恒力石化一期90万吨装置预计将在今年四季度投产,国内乙二醇的产能将迅速增加,供应压力不容忽视。

图为国内乙二醇生产企业周度开工率

季节性旺季过去后  下游聚酯需求将减弱

按照传统的消费习惯来看,9、10月是国内聚酯需求的季节性旺季,特别是前期聚酯企业生产利润较好的情况下,企业开工负荷维持高位,但整体低于去年同期水平且近期难以再次提升。更为重要的是,随着近期原料PTA和MEG价格的上涨,聚酯企业的利润明显下滑,这或许会导致其需求提前减弱。


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