风险偏好有望改善 10月股指偏乐观
作者:胡岸  2019/10/8 22:57:27  来源:原创  浏览:512

   若三季度GDP超预期下滑,短期或对股指有利空影响,但利空消化后新一轮流动性宽松的窗口有望再度开启。


   国庆节后首个交易日,股指冲高回落,延续节前弱势。节前公布的9月制造业PMI为49.8,较上月小幅回升,但仍低于荣枯线,后续重点关注10月中公布的经济数据,其中GDP最为关键,若三季度GDP超预期下滑,短期或对股指有利空影响,但利空消化后新一轮流动性宽松的窗口有望再度开启。

   各项经济指标将陆续公布

   8月底至9月初政策会议密集,陆续释放出积极的信号。首先,8月31日金融委提出要“加大宏观经济政策的逆周期调节力度,下大力气疏通货币政策传导”。其次,9月4日,国常会会议强调要“及时运用普遍降准和定向降准等政策工具”,措辞越来越明确,9月6日降准落地,“全面+定向降准”释放长期资金约9000亿元,市场对政策宽松的预期越发强烈,带动股市走高。但9月17日MLF缩量平价续作,利率下调的预期落空,市场当日明显回调。9月24日,央行行长易纲在新闻发布会上定调,表示货币政策“以我为主”,主要服务于国内经济。这意味着即便欧盟、美国等主要国家和地区陆续开启货币宽松周期、下调政策利率、扩表等等,对我国货币政策的影响也有限,未来国内货币政策调整的空间和预期指引主要来自于国内的经济状况的预期差。

   进入10月中下旬后,9月和三季度的各项经济指标将陆续公布。我们认为数据公布对市场的影响可能有两种情形,情形一:若经济数据企稳或超预期,股指有望止跌回升;情形二:若经济数据不及预期,股指短期或延续回调的态势。但是随后,按照惯例,十九届四中全会将在10月召开。假设情形二出现,即月中公布的重要经济数据低于预期,那么在股指短暂回调后,投资者对宽货币或宽财政的预期也会再次走高,具体的指引内容很可能会体现在月末的会议中。若经济数据延续疲态,因市场风险偏好改善的窗口或再次打开,投资者可以趁回调逢低做多股指。

   国庆节后上涨概率大

   历史上,国庆假期后首周A股多数向好。近10个国庆假期之后上证综指首个交易日、前3个交易日、前5个交易日、前10个交易日分别平均上涨1.01%、2.53%、2.48%和2.68%,上涨概率分别为70%、90%、80%和70%。近10年上证综指国庆假期后首3个交易日有9年录得正收益,平均涨幅高达2.53%。近10年国庆假期后,仅去年股市出现明显下跌,造成这一例外的因素主要有二。首先,去年国庆节前股指大幅上涨,量能也有所放大,情绪处于阶段性顶部,风险偏好易下难上。其次,去年假期期间中美贸易摩擦升级,全球股市提前反映风险,而A股滞后释放风险。与去年相比,今年国庆节前A股价量齐跌,缩量下跌后风险偏好易上难下。综合来看,日历效应显示A股节后短期偏多,且今年市场条件优于去年,股指短期存在反弹动能。

   总体来看,股指前期上涨主要来自市场对流动性宽松的预期,国庆假期期间,海外资产受经济数据和风险事件影响波动较大大,欧美股市普跌,但走势呈先跌后涨,预计对A股的负面影响有限。日历效应显示,国庆假期后首周股市多数上涨。中期来看,10月中旬公布的9月和三季度重要经济数据较为关键,若数据显示经济进一步下探,股指短期或回调,但是伴随着市场对十九届四中全会有更多的期待,届时风险偏好有望再次改善。我们对10月的股指偏乐观,操作上建议逢低试多为主。

                                        (作者单位:广发期货)


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