股指进入振荡整固阶段
作者:何慧  2019/10/8 22:58:56  来源:原创  浏览:500

   回顾9月A股市场,三大期指冲高回落,IF、IH、IC加权指数分别微涨0.06%、0.87%、0.72%。国庆节后首日,在外围市场整体偏弱的背景下,A股迎来开门红,上证指数收涨0.29%,结构上大盘蓝筹强于中小创。从技术上来看,8月中旬至9月中旬A股展开一波反弹,9月下旬市场快速调整,回撤至50%关键分位线,目前IF、IH、IC价位分别位于3800、2900、4800整数关口附近,且中长期60日均线有支撑效应,对于10月的市场表现无需过于悲观。

   当前做多窗口仍将继续,但风险偏好边际收敛之下,后续行情将逐步回归基本面。一方面,当前全球经济增速继续放缓,全球风险偏好逐步下行,短期对于国内风险资产造成一定影响。另一方面,国内经济出现改善,未来逆周期政策进一步发力。短期市场缺乏明显的催化,进入振荡整固状态的概率较大,需要等待新一轮行情的催化剂。

   最新公布的9月经济数据出现改善,官方制造业PMI为49.8,高于预期49.6和前值49.5。财新制造业PMI终值为51.4,连续三个月回升,且为2018年3月以来最高,显示制造业景气度改善。进入10月,上市公司三季报集中披露时间窗口来临,市场关注点再次回归基本面。从当前公布的494家上市公司的三季度业绩预告来看,三季度A股盈利或仍处弱势,但中长期来看,随着改革政策的多措并举、逆周期调节政策的持续推进,将对冲经济下行压力,企业盈利在四季度有望企稳回升。

   从政策层面来看,国内政策整体偏暖,9月27日,金融委第八次会议上再次强调“加大逆周期调节力度”,同日,央行三季度例会上进一步确认“经济下行压力加大”,明确宏观调控转向“加大逆周期调节力度”。进入10月,十九届四中全会将在北京召开,政策有望不断落地,A股整体不悲观。

   从估值来看,A股估值处于全球资本市场的估值洼地,不仅会吸引外资的流入,而且会吸引国内的一些机构资金,从传统行业退出来的资金以及从楼市流出的资金进入,都将会给A股带来源源不断的增量资金。A股市场的波动并未影响外资流入的热情,北向资金9月合计净流入646.62亿元人民币,创下沪港通、深港通开通以来单月净流入的历史新高。从历史经验来看,外资对A股的判断往往具有一定领先性,外资的动向值得投资者引起关注。

   国庆长假期间,欧美等经济体披露的主要经济数据疲弱,不及市场预期,全球主要股指普遍下挫。美国9月供应者管理协会(ISM)非制造业PMI为52.6,创2016年8月以来最低,远低于预期,制造业指数跌至47.8,为2009年6月以来新低。欧元区9月制造业PMI终值为45.7,创2012年10月以来的最低水平。另外,美国大小非农数据均低于预期,引发了市场对经济前景的担忧。

   全球进入货币宽松环境,并有望持续推进。继9月12日欧央行打出“降息+QE”组合拳,9月18日美联储年内第二次降息25bp,全球降息潮不断加强。10月1日,澳洲联储年内第三次降息,下调基准利率25个基点至0.75%的历史新低,10月4日印度央行年内第五次降息,累计降息幅度达135个基点。与此同时,随着基本面继续恶化,近期美国降息概率再度提升,美联储10月降息25个基点的概率已由此前的40%左右大幅上升至78%。

   虽然贸易谈判仍然存在不稳定性,但是市场预期较低,10月10日—11日中美开启新一轮经贸高级别磋商,双方关系若有所改善,将有利于全球风险偏好的提升和外资的持续流入,A股市场的投资者结构更为多元化,在市场逐步适应中美博弈的新常态背景下,A股的独立性在不断增强。

   总而言之,10月国内关注十九届四中全会召开、中美经贸第十三轮磋商、A股三季报预告,国外关注美联储、欧央行等利率决议动向。此外,英国脱欧以及美国大选时间表也值得密切关注。

                                       (作者单位:中辉期货)


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